gloss. i mean, it's not we're not reinventing the wheel here. the price point is actually a little higher than the price point. people like that. two elf beauty ceo taran eamon will be on mad money with jim tonight at. >> 612 million in net sales, not profit. so you're they're believers. we're they're big believers somewhere. >> incredible though. can you imagine now. and she's not the ceo. the ceo has to scale this company in a matter of a couple of years to $200 million. sales run rate. do you know how many like enterprise saas companies are trying to do that in silicon valley? >> what's the profit, though? >> well, if. >> you find out, i'll see you on wednesday or thursday. i'll be in alaska. >> i cannot wait monday. >> that is. >> going. >> to be great. thanks for watching. >> closing bell starts now. >> thank you kelly. >> welcome to closing bell. i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today. this make or break hour begins with the broad market mostly squandering an early rally. unable to build on nvidia's positive reaction to its strong results from after the close yesterday as investors rethink the prospects for trade deals following a court's ruling that most of the administration's global tariffs appear unlawful. you see nvidia

hanging on to a 3% gain on the day, the major indexes now hovering just above break even after starting the day with pops of around 1% each. and of course, after tuesday's sharp 2% gain, the s&p 500 you see right there, just up about one seventh of 1% right now, has mostly stayed green, but just modestly. the nasdaq is pulling some support from that bounce in nvidia, but it's being offset by weakness in the likes of apple, uber and netflix. the latter two have been big year to date winners. bond yields they are easing back following a slight uptick in weekly unemployment claims this morning, and a strong auction of seven year treasuries. you see the five year right at 4%. the ten's at 4.43. which takes us to our talk of the tape is the market's indifferent response to some good news, a simple sign of fatigue after the strong run higher from early april, or maybe a hint of tougher setup for stocks as we head into what should be an eventful summer, let's ask adam parker, research founder and a cnbc contributor.

adam, good to see you here. thanks for having me. so you can kind of play this both ways. either the market's kind of gone nowhere from early november, which is true or it's up a ton from early april. also true. are we just digesting things here. how do you viewing it? >> i think it's the second half of what you set it up. i think we're heading into some more concern. i mean, i thought we were funding so do we want it to happen. do we not want it to happen. there's a little bit of a math problem i think investors i'm talking to you today asking a little bit about the bond market. and you know when equity guys start doing that that's always a little bit worrisome. i consensus view is we're going to continue to melt a little bit higher until we get a little more clarity on october earnings season, the july guidance for october. people know the numbers are too high, but they're sort of thinking, hey, the top 50 stocks can maybe handle a little a little inflation. maybe the dollar weakening helps a little. maybe oil's low, maybe input costs are low. and so maybe the

earnings degradation isn't as bad as we thought a month or two ago. so i find like people are positioned for us to head a little bit higher. and they're just saying either a big slowdown in the consumer or bond yields will derail my current, you know, their current view. >> in terms of the tariff piece of it, i mean, obviously, as you suggest, you can you can slice it any way you want in terms of what the implications are, what the goals are. but the bottom line is just that whatever you thought about this ruling this morning, you're not going to get resolution tomorrow. and it's like you thought maybe after the 90 day pause, you would at least know something firm about the rules from here and what we're going to settle out at. i guess you just have no hope of that, i guess. but to me, the bigger question is, what does the market already assumed? you know, because we've rebuilt the valuations, we're within 4% of the highs. i'm not saying that you're assuming great things, but you aren't assuming worst case. >> i mean, i thought we were taught somewhere here that uncertainty is supposed to be bad for the price to earnings. right. like if i don't really know what's going to happen, i

probably should pay a little bit less until i have clarity. so i could see the logic today being, hey, things are a little less uncertain today than they were yesterday. i thought we were 10%. i thought we were working on china 30 and it's a little more uncertain. so i could see the multiple probably mark to market from yesterday should be a little lower. the earnings you know i don't know. and i think that's the part where the perception about growth just get better because maybe there's less chance we're going to implement things. i don't know i would argue either way we created a little bit of a ripple effect here where we're going to do some things with pricing, with inventory, with capital spending, with delays in spending. and i think you'll see some of that impact stocks 100 through 500, at least for the july, you know, july earnings period. so i think we're in a bit of a data vacuum here with nvidia being considered like the last big company that reports. >> yeah. >> exactly. and so. >> it's going to say that does kind of sum it up to a degree. right. you kind of you know, what you had in the second quarter. you also had you know, no, what we had in guidance. and

it was probably less bad than we thought it was going. >> to be. definitely less bad. i think visa's print, you know, people are looking for real time consumer prints. you could say in the last couple of weeks, the consumer slowing. i think you could say ross stores little light, you know, definitely considered a skew toward the lower end consumer that the boxes like physical retail boxes have disappointed. i mean, if you strip out target's online business, their physical boxes comp like down five and a half against a down four a year ago, they're down 10% over a two year stack. it's 100 billion revenue. i mean, you know, so there's definitely some consumer slowing at the at the middle to low end. that's that's happening and some price sensitivity. but i think the s&p is a weird index where you know, the mag seven is 25% of the earnings and 30% of the market cap. and they're probably immune to a little bit of a stagflation fear. bank earnings were good. so i think there's some offsets enough that it's hard to get too bearish right now. and what makes you get more bullish will be anything on the consumer and the industrial front that look a little bit more benign.

>> you mentioned clients, you know, raising the specter of something going on in the treasury market that could be a headwind. i mean, what are we wishing for here? i wonder that to some degree, because some of the backup in yields over the last several weeks is clearly been the economy is sort of hanging in there. >> yeah. better than people. >> pricing out more, more fed action for several months. and then people get fixated on the fiscal situation. but it's very slow moving. it's mostly unchanging. and we're kind of in the same range. on the ten year we were for, you know, eight months ago, a year. >> ago, the ten year has been super stable. while the stock market's been volatile, i've noticed that. i think what i believe is true is that we don't want the fed to do anything, like if we just don't move the front end at all, we say, you know, the economy's hanging in. they don't we don't really need to cut right now. we're not seeing inflation pick up or i'm not worried they're going to hike. then i think the market you know maybe has a slight, you know, melt up with a higher multiple. but if they have to cut 1 or 2 more times i'm not

sure it's as as great as you want it to be. oh yeah. the market just rips higher because they're cutting, because they're likely going to be responding to sort of enough deteriorating data points that they think it's required. and, you know, the market will lead the fed on that. so that's the challenge i have. i think i think pause is like the best scenario. >> well, let's actually stay right there, adam, because president trump did meet with fed chair powell earlier today megan cassella is here with the details. what we know from both sides, megan, about that meeting. >> hey, mike. absolutely. we learned earlier this afternoon powell was here at the white house at the president's invitation. it was the first meeting between the two men that we know of since 2019. the white house press secretary, caroline leavitt, gave a little bit of a readout from the white house side just earlier this afternoon. take a listen. >> the president did say that he believes the fed chair is making a mistake by not lowering interest rates, which is putting us at an economic disadvantage to china in other countries. and the president's been very vocal about that, both publicly. and now i can reveal privately as

well. >> that readout from leavitt, coming just after we got a readout from the fed side as well, which leavitt did say the white house agreed with the fed, saying in its statement that the two men discussed economic developments, including for growth, employment and inflation, and that chair powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information. so looking at both of these statements side by side here, both men really sticking to their guns, the president telling the fed chairman privately what he said publicly that he believes not cutting rates is a mistake. and then the fed chairman, of course, sticking to the fed's dual mandate, saying it's required by law that they will remain data dependent and focused on both sides of that mandate. mike. >> yeah. megan. thank you. so each each one essentially reasserting what they what they've been saying. and maybe it's been somewhat diffused obviously. right. the supreme court decided they had to say that the president can't fire the fed chair. we are going to

get pce tomorrow. so you're going to have another inflation input. you think the economy and you implied earlier that wall street can deal with a wait and see fed. >> i feel like powell's words there were like i generated like if you if you just typed in what is powell going to say. it's going to spit out, hey we have a dual mandate that's data dependent. like at this point, you know, that that feels like, you know, that wasn't even the real powell. you know. so and i think he's got to do that because when he finally does make a move, it has to be grounded in multiple data points that he can sort of almost prove he's independent. yeah. right. and so i don't think they're going to cut as much as what's in the price. and i think if they do the stock market is going to act bad before they do. so yeah that's my view. >> look they cut 100 basis points starting last september. right. that was because rates were way high relative to what they thought the neutral rate was and also where inflation had come down. right? i mean, if you get a little bit of relief on inflation from here and we're trending below two and a half, you still right now have the fed funds rate at four and a quarter

plus. right. so in theory there's room to bring those together a little bit by cutting without it being an emergency. >> i think that will be hard for them to do with unemployment where it is. and that's the, you know, the number one part of the dual mandate that we get data on each month. and unless you see that deteriorate, unless you see large companies say, hey, we're going to start firing people, i just think it's going to be hard for them to do it. and i really do think it's the opposite of where we were at the end of 202, when, you know, the street just sort of said, hey, i know you're hiking, but i'm going to start buying stocks anyway because there's only 1 or 2 left. i think we're on the other side of that now. we're going to start selling stocks. if i think, you know, the accommodation has only got 1 or 2 left and or if i really need the extra accommodation. so i think it's really my view is that the interest rate path has less to do with whether i buy equities or not, or bonds or stocks or even us versus non us. it's all just going to cause a big rotation within the equity market. so i think for most people i talk to who are

institutional investors trying to beat the index. they're just trying to figure out when to rotate. like do i get into discretionary that's got killed where the estimates are low? do i take a shot at, you know, kind of regional banks or other things that haven't participated? to me, it's all in the market because i think it's just too hard to know, you know, what the fed's going to do. and they're going to lag the data that i'm going to get from the. >> companies anyway. i mean, saying that the job market is still okay is a kind of a formula for them. >> it's a lagging indicator. >> right. so we'll see. adam, hang out for just a second. let's send over to kristina partsinevelos for more on today's action in the chip stocks. christina. >> well, let's start with the latest chip news. mike, this afternoon, cynopsis suspending its quarterly and full year guidance after receiving a letter from the commerce department about new export restrictions to china. and this really hits close to home for cynopsis, since china represents roughly 14% of its total revenue. the company, much like cadence, makes the essential software that designs advanced chips. basically the blueprint tools that chip makers really can't do without. the us government, though, is clearly escalating its efforts to kneecap china's ai ambitions. today's move targeting design

software, shows washington realizes that just blocking finished chips isn't enough. speaking of blocking finished chips, nvidia proved that even major geopolitical headwinds can't slow down the ai boom. nvidia projects it's going to lose $8 billion in q2 revenue because of these government policies, but the company still managed to forecast $45 billion in second quarter revenue thanks to strong demand specifically from its blackwell products. or as you and adam said, less bad. right. so nvidia is more heavily weighted in the sm and the sm, the s&p 500 spider etf, both of which are up marginally at this point. but nvidia shares still stuck rangebound. the 52 week high was $153. shares are up about 3%, so still stuck in this range. mike. >> yeah, for i don't know, 11 months in a way depending on how you define the range. christina. thank you very much. see you again in a bit. let's bring in american century investments. mike road and ned davis, ed clissold adam parker of course is still with us. thanks to all for weighing in. mike. you know,

just this another volley of potential restrictions on these chip design firms really just adds to the noise level, i would assume, and i suppose creates a challenge in terms of how investors are supposed to think about that as a friction point for markets, for the economy. or has the market broadly told you, look, we can absorb this? >> yeah. well, if you look at nvidia, nvidia's results last night, they clearly absorbed china not being in their guidance and put up an incredible quarter. the interesting thing though is the stock's up 3% right. the question is where's the incremental buyer. and our expectations so high. and on that expectations point you kind of hit it at the top of the show. you know we're up over the last six weeks. the market's up 20% off of the bottom vix is below 20. you think everything is great right. but the reality is you know we could see a next few months with more volatility. now that the s&p is trading at 22 times earnings. very close to an all time high. a lot of this

negative soft data that we saw over the last few months likely to turn into more negative hard data. so we could have some, you know, negative catalysts from a news perspective. and then finally, what's been driving this 20% growth or 20% rebound. it's been largely retail buying the dip. institutions really haven't participated. and you've also seen hedge fund short interest really pick up in the last couple of months. so you know, over the next few months, given valuation where we are today, you probably want to lean defensive and make sure you're really well diversified. but when you look out to next year, there are some more potential positive catalysts. clearly, the trump administration has pivoted and is focusing more on growing the economy as opposed to doge and other cost cuts. and so from an earnings perspective, earnings may be flat this year. but in a normal year, which so far has not been, markets tend to look out by the middle of the year. markets are looking out at

next year earnings growth. so you could see acceleration next year. and a lot of the areas that has that haven't kept up as much. small caps mid caps the s&p 593. so it'll be interesting to see i would say near term. you know given the run we've had. make sure you're diversified longer term next year things could look a lot more optimistic. >> yeah it's true. by halfway through this year it's already next year in people's minds to a large degree. hang on guys, we are getting some breaking news out of washington. let's get back to megan casella at the white house. megan. >> hey, mike. some moving trade news here on that ruling overnight on the trump administration's tariffs. the u.s. court of appeals for the federal circuit now saying that all of those tariffs that were found to be unlawful are able to stay in place, at least temporarily, while this case moves through appeals. so, essentially, the administration's request for an emergency stay, meaning that the ruling would not yet take effect, that stay has now been temporarily granted. while they give both sides more time to respond now, the court did set a

june 5th deadline for the plaintiffs to then respond and for the administration to then respond again by june 9th. so in the coming weeks, we will see more movement on this. but what this means, mike, is that in the meantime, it's status quo on the tariffs. despite that ruling last night from the court of international trade. now, the administration's request for an emergency stay or for some immediate relief has been granted. trade negotiations can continue. tariffs can continue to be collected as we see this case move further into appeals. mike. >> okay, june 5th, one week from today. we'll add that to the list of deadlines we have to kind of keep in our heads. megan, thank you very much. and, you know, just in terms of trying to wrap all together the markets actual behavior recently as mike was describing. right. you had this very strong rebound off of a pretty severe pullback. you have had volatility subside. you have retail investors that have been a pretty persistent bid. and you know maybe institutions have have some

catch up to do. how does that fit into how you're viewing where we are in terms of the market field position. >> yeah. mike i think there's you have to really think about what the kind of action the market experience coming off of that april 21st retest. and while every time we go through one of these air pockets, the market, it feels unique really. there's a consistent pattern. the market goes through. and what we saw was a retest on april 21st and then nine straight days of s&p moving higher. we had a huge percentage of stocks above the moving averages making new highs, advancing volume. these are classic things that happen at the beginning of a good upleg. and so we paused, you know, short term. but i think as we head into summer that momentum can continue. and then that's where the hard data that may catch up to the weak or soft data could come into play. and the reality of the situation is versus, say, we were at the beginning of the year, slightly

higher inflation, slightly lower economic growth. so that could make for a little bit of a tougher second half. but i think as we move through the end of the second quarter into the third quarter, there's still some good momentum in the market. >> you know, it's interesting, adam, i mean, we you know, we went from people assuming that the hard data was going to give way. right. because you had this profoundly negative swing in the survey based stuff to now it's kind of been okay on the hard data side. and i think people are extrapolating that even though we maybe have some pull forward of demand, there's a lot of noise in the numbers. you know, there's deceleration in the labor market, even if there is an outright weakness. so, you know, can we be sure about this? >> i mean, i don't know, listening to what everyone else is saying and the whole terrorist stuff, it's like dizzying. so now i assume it's not until june 5th. i mean, what am i supposed to mark to market my perception about growth for earnings estimates for this year? do i just ignore it because i think what the institutional investors are saying is take whatever trump says and assume it will never be

as bad as what he's saying. so just like fade, you know, any of his most negative comments and like, isn't today just another example of this? like, i don't know, what do i do? probably nothing. i'm dizzy. i'm dizzy into submission on changing my earnings estimates. so i'll just wait until the companies, the real companies, the industrials, the consumer tell me if something's slowing or not. and i assume for sure there was some pull forward in demand. you saw that in port data and other stuff. i have to look for evidence of credit problems. i have to look for 90 day credit card delinquencies. i have to look for, you know, the credit card. so i think we're going to see slowing data. i guess the one thing that i disagree with that i saw on the screen there, but i'm glad mike's not standing next to me since he's could, you know, post me up pretty easily. but i don't know if small caps can work unless we really do get the economic acceleration. so i think he's right. if people are looking at 2026 with an accelerating earnings, they are cheap. but i think in the today where we are now, it's going to be hard for them to work until we get a better understanding on the impact tariffs have on

margins, etc. >> so, mike, what is behind the thought that that small caps can can maybe do some catch up here. >> yep yep. and adam i would i would never post you up i know you're a pretty athletic guy so. yeah. so okay so they're really cheap right. we know that that's that should never be a thesis. but a pretty bad outcome has been priced into small cap stocks at this point. and then talking about these potential positive catalysts later this year, if the trump administration is really focused on dialing up growth, that will benefit small caps more than large caps, for sure, deregulation is coming. that's a direct small caps are going to be the biggest beneficiary of that. so the tax bill again that should also clear up. that should help stimulate the consumer. and then finally just kind of getting the tariffs and the trade situation ironed out, trade deals and getting some certainty out in the market where ceos can make capital allocation decisions to invest in new facilities and old facilities and actually do some

reshoring. so all of that could, you know, help drive small cap earnings, which have been negative to flat for the last three years. so at this point it's kind of an empty room. investors don't really care. it's a very small piece of the market. but historically that's been a really good time to start adding. if you have a longer term time horizon. >> and what is your work suggest about whether it is time to kind of look for laggard areas or stick with with what's been working? >> yeah, really the time to pick up the laggards would be once you get through the worst of a downturn or a bear market, which, you know, that's not where we are at the moment. in particular, for small caps, you really have to come to the point where you're getting out of a recession. and the only point i'd add on to that is i think there's this misconception about small caps. that was true a couple decades ago. they get more of their profits domestically than they get overseas versus large caps. but in reality, both the s&p 500 and

s&p smallcap 600 index get about 40% of their profits from overseas. so if you're looking for that domestic play, actually mid caps are a better place to go. the s&p 400 mid cap index gets less than a third of their profits domestically. so if you're going to use caps to play what's going on with the trade wars i'd look at midcaps small caps. >> yeah. interesting editor mike adam appreciate it. thanks for the conversation this afternoon. good to see you. let's send it back to christina for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. christina. >> let's start with c3. ai shares surging after it posted a narrower than expected loss. but bank of america reiterated the enterprise ai software company has an underperform rating, according to. according to them, because of lagging subscription growth, investors who shorted the stock, though likely contributing to this 24 almost 25% stock rise right now because 18% of the float is shorted, according to factset. elf beauty also, soaring earnings beat may have helped, but the company also announced it would acquire hailey bieber's beauty brand

road, in a deal worth up to $1 billion. kevin ryan road was founded in 2022, $1 billion and founded three years ago. elf did withhold its full year outlook amid uncertainty from tariffs. but investors, as brian said earlier and i know it's cheesy, are believers and that's why the stock is up about 24%. >> they are. i did also mention elf is among those retail names that have a pretty hefty short interest, to which maybe they're getting chased out of this one as well. >> okay, so they're not believers. thank you for killing the joke. the pun. >> maybe they are now, but we'll see. thank you. christina, we are just getting started here. up next, top technician john kolovos reveals the key levels that he's watching and the green flags he's seeing in the charts right now. he joins us after this break. we are live from new york stock exchange. you're watching closing bell on cnbc.

>> look at how option traders scored big on crocs with little capital at risk. stock shares were trading $98, while the option prices were just $3 in one week. crocs price shot up, giving stock investors a 12% return, while option traders enjoyed a 98% return. learning to trade options is not an option, it's a necessity, and our new book will show you how. get your free copy at. it's not get your free copy at. it's not an option.com when i started walton goggins' goggle glasses, i needed a website. and figuring out how to make one was pretty hard on the ol' noggin. but with godaddy airo, i can just tell it what i want, and it uses ai to make a website so fast it pretty much blows my noggin. this is working. with a beautiful design that'll blow my customers' noggins. which allowed me to focus my noggin on makin' more goggins'

to put on their noggins, which were just metaphorically blown. ♪♪ look like you know what you're doing at godaddy.com it nailed the colors on this. there's a great range of color in there. the grain pattern, the comb look to it is fantastic. >> doesn't have that like, weird plasticky look. it just looks like it's supposed to be there. like it's supposed to be there. it looks like what you you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean, not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, candidates can find it easier. so you can hire easier. visit indeed.com/hire strength in changing times requires leadership. hilltopsecurities is a leading municipal investment bank

and wealth management firm with a 79 year legacy of trusted financial advice. public entities, institutional investors, and individual families know they can always count on us no matter what the future brings hilltopsecurities will be there providing guidance. you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. -you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there is only a piece left for the birthday girl. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. reporting. download self. today.

>> welcome back an early day rally losing some steam though the indexes have firmed up the s&p up about 3/10 of 1%. our next guest is seeing some mixed signals beneath the market surface. let's get a check on the charts with macro risk advisors. john kolovos. john, good to have you here. look, as i see a lot of the assessments of this rebound rally, the s&p had since early april a lot of focus on okay. it's a really broad, very powerful recovery. we got to within like 3% of the old highs. maybe that bought the market kind of the benefit of the doubt. is that the case and where are you seeing maybe some offsets to that. >> okay. very good question. thanks, mike, for having me. of course. i think what's going on here with equity markets? they're undergoing this delicate

balance here between being long term bullish. and i say tactically bearish or cautious here. so you're right to point out these breadth thrusts or these technical green shoots that occurred. that means the market is in a structural bullish uptrend. however the market has found itself into a position here where it's overbought. sentiment is very complacent here that whether or not you're bullish long term or not, the market is poised for some sort of consolidation, if not a proper pullback okay. >> so certainly i mean maybe that's the process we've been in right for week and a half or so i guess s&p was down almost 3% last week. interesting to hear you say that. you feel that investor sentiment has become complacent. you know, i guess it kind of depends how you look. definitely a lot of speculation and, you know, short term option stuff. some of the retail driven names have been flying. on the other hand, you know, the surveys still seem pretty soggy, not very bullish. and even

institutional positioning is sort of in the middle. >> yeah, that's the trick here. and that's the delicate balancing act that we have here. you have the long term sentiment measures are still recovering from dire, if not apocalyptic levels. it's the shorter term ones like implied volatility has gotten pretty darn low. we'll call ratios got pretty darn low. high beta stocks have gotten pretty overbought. that argues for some sort of consolidation or pullback. but another way to think about it is this, mike, in terms of just how the market has where it's found itself, i don't think that 98 analog is holding anymore. we don't have to do that that retest. right i think the low is in. we're doing a v bottom. what's interesting about v bottoms is that once you recover about 80% of the decline you fall into this consolidation pattern. so we saw that in 2018 coming off of that low. we also saw in 2020. so that was that first moment after the covid low the market got shaken out pretty hard in june. went down about 7 or 8%, consolidated and then eventually broke out. so yes. so the chart that i brought shows

the 2018 example where like you kind of get to all time highs, but then you have a hard time sustaining it. the market needs really digest things. >> interesting. yeah. so if we're in that mode right now of kind of churning and consolidating, what is an acceptable retreat from here on the downside to where you'd say, yeah, this is still pretty routine and normal. >> yeah. so i'm advising clients this as long as we pull back to 5600 and how we pull back to 5600 is important. so i'm dip buying down to 5600. i still think we can get up to 6600 by the end of the year. so i'm holding on to that. but it's really how we pull back, because i got a sense that this market rallied. there wasn't a ton of renewed fundamental buying at all. people just got to get sucked in, kicking and screaming. so it's the nature of the pullback. will it be benign? will it be corrective in nature. so that would be the main level on the pullback 5600 is a line in the sand for me to stay structurally bullish here on the tape. >> all right. that's a that's a 5% drop from here. probably would get some folks attention

as you say depending on how it might happen john appreciate it. thanks for catching up today. thank you. all right. up next, intelligent alpha's doug clinton tells us where he's finding opportunity amid all the opportunity amid all the strength in big tech. closing i can't wait to see their faces when we come out. ha, ha, ha! [people laughing] what seems to be the problem, soldier? ♪♪ the belly, sir. it's full of greeks. sneaky cowards. innovation changes everything. send it back! with one investment, you can access the nasdaq-100 innovators who are rethinking the world. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

opportunity with picasso backed by leading vcs. we're building the future of second home ownership. with over $100 million in adjusted gross profits. now you can join top investors for just $2.80 per share before our share price changes. learn more at picasso. >> when logic bends, when certainties shatter, when left is right and right is left. which way do you turn? go beyond which way do you turn? go beyond the headlines. a trusted global new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

but i need cash. no. >> forgave him at first. >> it's your money. use it when you need it. >> okay. but worse in. >> 7.877 cash. now to get a $100 gift card for a free quote. this father's day. dad deserves better. and nothing's better than cooking on a black stone. because all across the nation, black stone is the way america cooks outdoors. your family will love every breakfast, lunch, and dinner you create with an enormous variety for your whole family. cook anything, anytime, anywhere, only on a black stone. go to your nearest black stone retailer or black stone retailer or black stone products.com and give your custom ink helps us motivate our students with custom gear. we love how custom ink takes care of everything we need so we can focus on the kids. we make it easy to wow all your groups with high quality custom apparel, accessories, and promo products, all backed by our guarantee at customink.com. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today,

helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. on cnbc and streaming on cnbc plus. >> i started the club for you. the investing club is about allowing you to be in control of your own life. you want to be a better investor. join the club. >> join the club and save at cnbc.com. join jim. terms and restrictions apply. >> tech stocks seeing gains today thanks to strong nvidia earnings. the tech sector also setting up for its best monthly gain since november of 2023. here to share his outlook and the best opportunities outside

of the mag seven stocks intelligent alpha founder and ceo doug clinton. doug, good to see you. >> good to see you, mike. >> coming in. so what have we learned from nvidia's results, its guidance and actually everything that built into it because it felt as if we were getting a pretty decent picture thematically about where we are in this phase of ai. >> i think it was sort of the culmination of a lot of things we've been hearing from all the ai hyperscalers for the last quarter. i mean, we've continued to hear this reiteration of we're going to spend we're going to build meta raised its capex guidance last quarter. and now i think we're seeing it play through in nvidia's results last night, where even though we had this noise about china, and how much could that impact mean, they still, i think guided up. if you sort of parse the china stuff out about 5%. and to put that into context, look at the last year of their sort of raises post quarter, and they've generally been kind of flattish to 2%. so this was a pretty strong quarter over the history of what's happened more recently. >> and what else are we coming to know about either uptake,

usage rates, how many iterations we're talking about, how clients are using this stuff or is it just still in look headlong build data center mode? >> i think it's mostly sort of this headlong build data center mode. but what i would say is, i mean, an intelligent alpha, we're actually building on this technology. so we're using all of the major large language models to do our stock analysis and portfolio curation. and i'll tell you what we're seeing is that every other week, it feels like a new significant model release happens. and we have to kind of go and update how we use the technology, because the updates are significant enough where we can do new things every other week. and so i think for us, we're happy to spend what we spend with the with the model providers. and i think they're starting to see more companies like us and certainly individuals. openai adding 100 million users every month. it feels like right now that are spending money as well. >> are there now kind of these sort of spin off and knock on plays that are worth looking at

at the moment, or is it still just kind of the obvious beneficiaries. >> for our perspective, i think semis is probably still the main place to be. and it's funny, the beginning of the year there was this narrative about software. this was going to be the year for ai, and software just hasn't happened. i mean, you look at some of the companies, even ones that we own in our livermore etf, adobe team, atlassian, they just they haven't really shown that acceleration from ai yet, but i think that probably still will happen. but it might still be 612 months away. the semis are going to keep seeing this more immediate spend. >> and then within semis then i mean obviously we're showing you know nvidia broadcom. i mean really over the last couple of years that's been where the upside has come. i know marvell is going to report after the close i mean is there something else to be to be gleaned from from what they say? >> maybe marvell we have also in our livermore etf. that's one i'm a little scared kind of going in tonight to be frank about it. the concern there is just there's been this constant

sort of question about are they going to lose some of their amazon business on the custom chip development side? and if we get a firm answer and there's been sort of reports that they may have lost that we get a firm answer tonight. the stock might be ugly. i think you expand your horizon and you say, are there other opportunities for marvell? i think there are. and so that's a name that we still do own despite that concern. >> you know, you mentioned how nvidia has managed to kind of completely plug the gap, almost, if not entirely of what might have been lost in terms of china. you also have these other sovereign. you know, ai plays. what is this going to ultimately lead to? is it going to just be all these parallel models and just, you know, not not one global standard? it's going to just be a lot of different kind of versions of this thing. or can we even say yet? >> i think it's probably a little too early to tell. i think certainly we've always seen in technology that you tend to have winner take most outcomes, and i think the same will be true in the model wars. i think you could see a general

winner in the closed source battle, which looks like open ai right now. google maybe is in the race grok also, and then you'll probably have a winner in the closed source space, which meta is trying to deliver with llama. then you look at the countries, right? and each country i think, wants to have influence over how these models are going to function. so whether that means they create a variant perhaps of some of these models that's more localized and trained on specific data there, or they use some of the open source models. i think that's kind of what looks like. so you might have some big winners and then they spiderweb out and these other applications. >> how much time did we gain confidence about in terms of being able to say, okay, we can extrapolate this spending level, this particular, you know, pattern of build out. is it two quarters, is it through next year? >> i think we still have at least a couple years, i would say from my perspective. and the reason i think that is some of what jensen highlighted on the call last night, which is this idea of kind of moving from a training paradigm where we're sort of teaching the models how to how to act to this inference

paradigm, where now it's how are the models thinking, how long do we want them to think about the questions we ask them? and again, i'll go back to our use cases. we use all of the reasoning models, and we let them think for very long times when they make investment decisions. so i think we're going to continue to see more and more applications that benefit from longer thinking time. and they're going to need more chips. >> so that just translates directly into just higher usage rates need more capacity. >> that's right. gotcha. more thinking is more chips. >> all right. as the old saying. right. all right. thanks very much. >> thanks, mike. >> appreciate it. still ahead, we'll drill down on all the moves in the energy space. we'll be right back.

>> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >> nothing stands still. not technology, not the market, and not franklin templeton. we've been a firm in motion for over 75 years, always innovating. today, we're a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future today. franklin templeton, your trusted partner. what's ahead? >> i just made a huge energy discovery out in the remote corner of utah. it's so big. i've come down to dc to break this story and reveal how you could be a part of it. hands down, it's one of the best stock market buying opportunities of 2025. whether you have $1000 or $1 million to invest, it's

unfolding thousands of miles from wall street in the wah wah mountains. and soon it's going to be all anyone wants to talk about or invest in. it's not ai, it's not crypto, nuclear robotics, driverless cars, or anything you'd likely heard about until now. but that's all going to change in a big way thanks to a record breaking level of land auctions that i've been investigating for the last couple of months. the auctions involved a new energy source, one that has the backing of some of the biggest names in the financial world. >> omaha steaks. >> sun's out buns out sale event is here right now. get 50% off site wide. save on favorites like fork tender filet mignon, juicy chicken breast, sides, desserts and more. order now and get eight of our famous burgers free. visit omaha

steaks.com/today to save 50% and get eight free burgers for the best value under the sun, just in time for father's day. >> welcome to cnbc's crypto world. >> cnbc's daily digital show has trading updates, the latest headlines, a global perspective and high profile interviews.

s on time, you can build your credit one step at a time. visit self to apply. >> a quick programing note if you missed jim cramer's sit down with nvidia ceo jensen huang, you can catch the entire thing on cnbc pro. just head to cnbc pro.com or scan the qr code on your screen. still ahead, we'll tell you what to watch when dell reports in overtime. closing bell right back. the broad market up about a quarter of a

percent. >> is this your dream of retirement? how about this? sweet deal? i like fishing or is this a little more your style? retiring wealth isn't a guarantee, it's a goal. it's easy when markets are going up. but what about when they're not? that's why you need this call for fisher's retirement survival kit. featuring your guide to surviving market volatility. our stock market outlook plus the fisher investments difference three indispensable guides yours free for calling one (800) 213-5317. fisher investments disciplined approach will help see you through the market's ups and downs, and give you the confidence you need to reach a comfortable retirement. and our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. call now for your free retirement survival kit 1-800-213-5317. see if your dream retirement is on track. >> if your portfolio is $1 million or more, call fisher million or more, call fisher today. when i started walton goggins goggle glasses,

i had no idea what i was doing. but godaddy airo does. using ai to build a logo, website and social content. so i can let the world know, if your goggles ain't goggins, they don't belong on your noggins! yes. yes. >> why should you trade options rather than stocks? because they offer higher returns or cost effective and can actually reduce risk. learn how in our new book. get a free copy today at. it's not an option. it's not an option. dot com. >> what i look for in a contractor is someone who's reliable and skillful. >> that's where angie comes in with top rated pros in over 500 categories, angie can connect you with the right pro for any home project. find top rated pros in your area at angie. com.

>> as we age, we get lines and that's okay. but our makeup needs change. that's why i created what the foundation. it's ultra moisturizing and melts seamlessly into your skin. learn more at jones road, beauty.com. >> offer up boxes. >> sure, they bring you stuff, but they can't show you how to use it. tara, who sold you her treadmill on offer up, won't treadmill on offer up, won't mind at this is buddy. i've never met a dog like him because there's never been a dog like him. every dog is unique. that's why at the farmer's dog, we put your dog at the center of everything we do. with food that's freshly made to human grade safety standards in personalized portions. ♪♪ it's packed with all the nutrients dogs need and delivered right to you. we just want to make it easier to take care of everybody's... buddy. ♪♪ you asked me that three times already!

i did? this is exactly how it started with mom. worried about your brain health? cerefolin brain wellness has a dual-action formula that slows cognitive decline while improving memory, focus, and concentration. those taking cerefolin brain wellness experienced a slower rate of brain shrinkage. now also available without a prescription at cerefolin.com and amazon. it changed my mind. neurologist recommended. cerefolin brain wellness. national lab, which is set to launch in 2026. and this is important as countries really race to build these powerful computing systems for national competitiveness, do not represents america's latest push to maintain its scientific edge. and what i mean by that is,

unlike traditional systems that work separately, this supercomputer merges simulation data ai into one platform. they're going to be using dell infrastructure and nvidia's vera rubin architecture. it's really designed to tackle the department of energy's biggest challenges, from unlocking clean fusion energy to designing new superconducting materials and processing real time data from space telescopes. so there's a press conference going on right now in california. supercomputers that are important have become critical national infrastructure, with china, japan, europe investing billions in next generation systems. this new supercomputer really aims to compress years of discoveries in today's with the goal of maintaining, of course, america's position in the global race for scientific breakthroughs. jensen wang will be speaking at 350. in about seven minutes. he's going to have a press conference afterwards. we'll come with you with any breaking news from that, mike. >> all right. yeah, we will absolutely listen up for that. christina. thank you. up next, we'll run you through what to

watch from costco and dell. when those numbers hit the tape in overtime. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone with the dow just about a session. highs up 3/10 of 1%. >> at kpmg. we make the difference. it's not just something we say. it's what we do. like uncovering unique insights that use ai to battle sepsis. developing gold industry solutions to enable, first of its kind, farming automation or creating better outcomes by using data to enhance critical community support services. brighter insights, bolder solutions, better outcomes. it's how our people make the difference. at zillow, spencer rascoff helped change how people buy homes and created billions in value. but his only regret was not letting everyday investors in sooner. now, spencer and i are targeting a $1.3 trillion opportunity with picasso, backed by leading vcs. we're building the future of second home ownership with over

100 million in adjusted gross profits. now you can join top investors for just $2.80 per share before our share price changes. learn more at picasso. >> com experience the power of cnbc pro track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized platform. become a smarter investor with the power of

of elevated at at&t business, we confidently guarantee our network. what we can't guarantee...enough hours in the work day... or...your projects always going as planned... 3 days max. (glass shattering) oof...more like 3 weeks. (♪♪) hey! and closing up shop on time? still open? sure! yes! they're open! not tonight... but with at&t business, you can get the connectivity you depend on or we'll make it right. (mnemonic) power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading

to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ what's behind the swing lower in oil prices, plus two earnings reports out in overtime that we're watching. you see the party is back with dale and melissa repko on costco. so first pippa a little bit softer crude prices today. >> yeah that's right mike. so we did see oil dip as opec plus members could decide to hike july production by more than

400,000 barrels per day when they meet this weekend. that's according to sources who spoke with cnbc international. now, it would be the fourth straight month of larger than expected hikes adding to supply, just as demand concerns really started taking hold amid the trade. uncertainty on the heels of that, energy is the second to worst sector this year, and if oil stays in the low 60s, at some point companies might have to start cutting the hefty shareholder returns. investors have become accustomed to. last year, the international oil majors paid out a record 119 billion. that's according to rystad, with shareholder returns as a share of corporate cash flow from operations rising to 56%. now, if this year's buybacks and dividends remain at 2024 levels, that ratio will top 80% a level, mike, that the firm called unsustainable. >> yeah, absolutely. that would perhaps be be pushing the limits. and pippa, in terms of the potential for opec to again kind of increase supply, what seems to be the motivation there. is it just market share

at this point? >> it really seems to be that market share gain. now of course the opec plus overall has said it's about compliance with some of the members like kazakhstan that have consistently been producing above their quota. but it really does seem to be more about market share. when you read between the lines, the group has said that this is a very strong market, which all the data points suggest is really not the case at the moment, and that it's really an inopportune moment to start bringing back production. but after years of keeping more than 6 million barrels per day on the sidelines, some of the larger producers, of course, saudi arabia that does have the lowest break even cost, they seem to have said, you know, it's now too much. and so they decided that now is the time to bring back bring back more production. >> all right, pippa, thank you. christina, we got a little news on del before, but now we're looking ahead to the results. >> yeah. the numbers and dels i server businesses really has been booming. thanks to nvidia's powerful chips making their infrastructure solutions group isg, the fastest growing segment just last quarter. management said deals with xai and others pushed dell's server backlog to

$9 billion. that backlog should continue to grow after dell's manufacturing partner, wistron, noted improved shipments just at computex a few weeks ago, so that was a positive sign. however, dell remains heavily exposed to traditional pcs and servers, management said last quarter they're still waiting for this ai pc refresh cycle, while consumer demand stays challenged. and hp inc's earnings from last night reinforced this concern, they lowered their 2025 pc industry growth outlook due to uncertainty around consumer and commercial purchasing decisions, and that sent hp shares down 8% you can see on your screen. so some people are wondering if that's going to be reflected in dell's numbers. dell's ai server strength, though, needs to offset continued weakness in their traditional pc server business when they report very soon. >> mike. that is of course, their abiding hope. christina. thank you very much. melissa. costco obviously very well positioned company. been an investor favorite. what are we

looking for in terms of the results? >> hi, mike. yes. when costco reports quarterly earnings results today, wall street expects the company's revenue and earnings to be up year over year for the warehouse club, known for competitive prices and bulk discounts, tariffs could help drive more customers to its stores and keep its membership sticky. get tariffs could also add costs, which could mean higher prices even at costco, best buy ceo corie barry said earlier today that prices have already gone up on some consumer electronics, and earlier this month, walmart warned of higher prices coming to its stores. to about a third of costco's u.s. sales are imports, with less than half coming from china, mexico and canada, costco ceo ron baker said on the company's earnings call in march. he said uncertain times tend to benefit the company since customers typically seek value. wall street's taken a rosy view on costco. mike shares are up about 10% this year, outpacing the s&p 500. >> yeah, and certainly, you know, costco's valuation is also

quite, quite a premium to the rest of the space. it is interesting, you know, their comments about how obviously their customers seek value. and costco kind of culturally and by strategy has always kept its own margins relatively low. i wonder if that means they'll have to shoulder more of the costs and just hope that they make it up on the memberships, or how that might play out. >> that's a very good point. one advantage that costco has here is that it could pivot away from categories that are more exposed to tariffs. it has a lot of treasure hunt type items in the middle of the store. and so for example, if certain categories like toys are more exposed it could switch to another supplier, it could switch to other kinds of merchandise. and that gives it some flexibility. >> right. and then, you know, we've actually had this full week of retail results. you mentioned some of what people have said about about pricing. what has been the main takeaway about the state of, of consumer appetites right now? >> you know, one thing that struck me, mike, is just the similarity to the last few quarters. we're just hearing about this consumer who remains more selective about their spending. it's been a recurring

theme ever since inflation. now it's for a little bit of a different reason. with with tariffs being a fear of consumers and potentially some uncertainty about whether they'll be paying a higher bill. but it's been much of the same when it comes to retailers contending with a really choosy shopper. >> yeah. and i guess just given where expectations had gotten down to in april, maybe more of the same is pretty comforting, at least for the moment. we'll see how it how it develops from here. melissa, thank you so much. appreciate it. we're coming up on one minute to go into the close. you see the major indexes there sitting on gains of more than a third of 1% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq has been the leader all day, up 4/10 of 1%. did weather a little bit of an intraday pullback, but we are firming up into the close. nvidia is on track to be up a little more than 3% on the day. that is a few percent below where it did open. a tie of the day was one 4349. we're at around 139 at the moment. so that does continue a pattern of a little bit of a sell. the news

response market breadth has been positive all day. twice as many stocks up as down on the new york stock exchange. so the average stock outperforming the big cap indexes in general. and also treasury yields have managed to come in just a little bit slightly softer weekly jobless claims this morning. and then a pretty good seven year treasury auction has helped on that front. would also just mention the volatility index is still hovering around 19, even though we have a pretty quiet session with indexes. most stocks up market is still on alert for the possibility of who knows, maybe more trade headlines. that is the end of regulation. we are going to send it over to john ford with overtime. that's exactly what that. >> bell means. exponential fitness ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. eskom enterprise doing the honors at the nasdaq. it was a positive day on wall street with stocks edging higher after a midday drop. the dow had been down 270 points, nvidia closing in the green but off the highs, the