>> all right, welcome back, everybody. let's take a final check on the markets this morning. things are sharply higher now. dow futures up by about 300 points. you've got the s&p futures up by 45 and the nasdaq up by 180. that came after the payrolls came in. better than expected 139,000 versus about 125,000 that had been anticipated but also much better versus the down numbers that we've seen with adp earlier this week. have a great weekend, everybody. we will see you back here next week. it is friday right now. it's time for squawk on the street. >> good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures do spike on another solid jobs print 139,000 slightly ahead of estimates. some negative revisions. unemployment stays at 4.2 for the third consecutive month. vix is near a four month low. a roadmap begins with the may job. surprise hotter than

expected futures rally ahead of the open. plus that trump musk. >> bromance breakup and oh what a breakup. the president and the world's wealthiest man a very public war of words on social media. tesla shares are looking to rebound after they had one of the worst days ever. and well, tech is the biggest winner on the s&p this week. microsoft in fact, amongst the big names that are hitting all time highs. in fact, that is its first in nearly a year. >> let's begin with this feud between the president and elon musk, their differences over the trump tax and spending cuts bill extending into those back and forth posts on social media yesterday about other issues, too, according to nbc news this morning, white house chief of staff siouxsie wiles says there are no plans for a call between trump and musk, and that refutes a report by politico which says otherwise. abc jon karl jim got him on the phone, trump said he's not interested at this time in talking to musk. >> well, look, i mean, i think that we always speak in terms of

cards because of the zelensky craziness. and i don't know, i think that musk has a lot of money, but i do think the president has the cards. david, you studied musk. a lot of what musk does is offer a superior product to governments worldwide. but a superior product doesn't necessarily win if you don't want it to. you can put your finger on the scale. and i think that there's too many. he's way at risk here dealing with the president, who is not necessarily who kind of has a very close relationship with the justice department. >> and not to mention is quite vindictive when it comes to his enemies, certainly. or perceived enemies. yeah, jim, i mean, obviously, along with everybody else, just kind of watched in wonderment, not necessarily fully surprised what we saw yesterday. although when you go, epstein, it's not clear to me you ever come back from that in terms of repairing a relationship, as that was one of any number of different posts from mr. musk in terms of really

attacks on the president. and obviously there were rejoinders as well. he's got a lot at stake. elon has never shown a willingness to back off, ever. never. once he made that clear in the interview we did two years ago, of course, where he famously said, i don't care, right? and he has proved it every day since, whether it's alienating a certain part of his potential buyers for teslas by being so political in many ways and so many other ways. but this one is a sort of a somewhat unique challenge he's taken on. because to your point, whether it is tesla and mileage standards from which it benefits, by the way, because remember, it sells its credits. it's got a lot of money to other automakers that need to meet mileage standards that may go away or may very well go away, whether it is getting nationwide rules for autonomous driving. i mean, when i was in austin a couple of weeks ago, the department of transportation secretary was there with me, and they were meeting and talking

about those very rules as musk gave gave him sean duffy, a tour not just of the plant, but of the cars as well. so relying on the government for that ev credits, obviously, which are going away under the big beautiful bill reliant to a certain extent on that as well. and then you get to things like nasa, you just go on and on. and to your point, jim, it would seem that it's not necessarily rational to, to, to, to pursue at this level of vitriol what mr. musk is currently pursuing against the president. >> i think that's right. i think that if you own tesla, you own this, you own this fight. now the analysts can they can't find anything wrong with what he does. i didn't read anyone who just said, you know what, i liked it, but i didn't know. this guy is just one hell of a crazy guy. i think everyone has accepted his craziness and, like, liked it. i don't think you can. i think that you said the key thing, david. you used the term. i have a there's an

executive i know that is linked with fc, and i don't have it to the point where it's in front of me from a justice department document, but i, i could have used it and i said, i can't. i mean, i talked to a number of people, i went to lawyers, i went i went to people who were involved with ethics. and they just said, look, jim, i know you know it, but you can't mention it. and i feel, carl, that that is the that's the bridge too far. everything else, it's a spat. mentioning epstein is to say, i'm going to take you down. i think that the problem with with elon is he's a he's like a strap strap, a bomb to your leg guy. i mean, i think that he's i don't think he i don't care means in part that okay, cancel everything. cancel everything. i don't care with the idea that what does he do? does he just give millions to democrats who run against republicans? >> well, i mean, the line about decommissioning dragon was a

signal, jim, of how reliant the government is now on what some call oligarchs. you mentioned the street today. adam jonas does reiterate for ten, but says he's prepared for the stock to give up more. by the way, adam has an 800 bull and a 200 bear case. and then goldman does trim some delivery numbers. >> look, i think that that that adam that's a pretty this this is just different. >> this is different. >> this is different. >> and i mean to the point carl made canceling dragon, which is the main way that nasa gets access to space. now. he did, i think walk that back a bit later. you know, jim, if you are obviously tesla is the main public way, but there are plenty of investors in spacex x. i as well talked about many times, and which also includes, by the way, x, the former twitter. if you're an investor with musk you knew this again i go back to two

years ago and his behavior since then in terms of at least understanding the risk you were taking, that comes with all that reward because it's elon musk, and look what he's accomplished. but do you have to take another look at it and. >> say, i'm saying yes. >> i don't know if i can own tesla. >> i'm saying yes. >> is he willing to really blow it all up? >> well, i just think that there's look it as between tesla and 499 other stocks. i would tell you that i can't sleep at night with, with this now. i mean, i can wake up in the morning and the guy can say, i've been thinking about it and i'm pulling out. and what does that mean to all these, these, all these private venture people who own it? i mean, he's what look, he's it's a one person company. >> well, tesla is not i mean, i don't think of it that way. >> well, no, no, i think that these people i think people were buying him. >> yeah. well, it's the way through the public markets to get access to musk. and obviously the promise of autonomous vehicles and the promise of robotics, which are the two areas that he is most

focused on, not on the delivery numbers. right, that we will talk about. and that can still influence the stock price on a daily basis. >> well, i think. >> again, you need the government as your partner in some way in so many of these efforts that, you know, he said again, in the back and forth yesterday, well, trump's around for three and a half more years. i'm around for 40 plus. but three and a half more years could take a lot of damage. carl. >> look, i'm thinking about what biden did when he decided, look, we're not going to put a pause on liquefy, you know, on lng. okay, let's put a pause on on a pipeline. and that ended the industry. it just ended it because there were so many projects that were canceled. most of them, many of them have not come back. i just think that president trump, vindictive, could say, you know what? i've decided that i don't like self-driving autos that rely on vision. i think that ones that rely on maps are better. in other words. >> well, lidar and radar, right?

he could basically say we favor the department of transportation favors waymo. >> yeah. and then what? then you own you own something. i mean, i love the self-driving, but if i know the president can take look, i care more about the president than musk. i think musk is going to do what's right. i just now think. what's right. well, you want self-drive. you want to get good self-driving. you want the best technology. what i'm saying is, is that i don't think the president necessarily i think you could say waymo is good and i don't want to do the other. and then what happens then? i lose the main prop of self-driving, which i think is so important. >> there's also, jim, we haven't mentioned china. navarro today says talks first talks should happen within seven days. but some argue this removes an ability for the u.s. to have a power play against china. when those talks do resume. >> well, everything is jeez, you know, i keep coming back to the, you know, the rare earth and how it's going to start shutting down the autos. but i you know what? you know, when this thing started, it was when he made fun

of peter navarro. >> calling him dumber than a sack of bricks. >> yeah. and i think that he forgot that peter navarro, rather than talk negatively about the president, went to jail for the president. >> you know, that was that was the first of sort of. >> it was a mistake by. >> him on on his platform, on against the member of the administration. that said, my understanding is musk's frustration really began much earlier when sam altman showed up at the white house that first time to announce stargate. remember, altman and musk are at each other. they are still involved. yes. serious litigation, by the way. serious for openai as well, of course, which the home of chatgpt and is altman's company and litigation that's been initiated by elon musk. >> but do you agree with me that. >> then when the uae announced the stargate deal and musk sort of parachuted in, my understanding is the administration was not particularly happy with that. siouxsie wiles, the chief of staff, may not have been particularly pleased with that. and it was then that you started to see his influence and or his

exit kind of begin. so it's unclear where or how long he's been frustrated. to some extent, musk and holding his tongue to some extent. that said, i mean, i told. >> you guys how. >> many times i would say to people, this thing's going to blow up. >> isn't it? do you agree with me that that that now musk could do everything, put out the greatest products in the world, but you no longer think that they could get federal approval? that's what i'm worried about. i'm not worried about. i think elon musk is going to develop too much. >> it doesn't seem like harvard university. yeah. do you want to be in the same place they are? >> yeah. no. i don't even want to. >> bannon wants him deported. and we know from reports last year that musk did begin his career in this country illegally. at least that's according to the washington post. >> i know that's a yeah, that's suboptimal. you know, look, i, i know the president he's in my class the president of harvard okay. yes. and look, you know, whoa. every day you wake up, there's some new thing. and i

think that it just shows you what musk may be facing, because alan garber is probably the most rational. he's done everything right that i've. i've watched him do what he does, and i've known him. he's in my in my class, and everything he does is right. and it doesn't seem to matter at all. >> right. well, again. >> but he never crossed the president. >> he never did that. there's a lot of risk here potentially. >> well, that's. >> will they be able to somehow repair it or move on? because it's not as though musk does not have an incredible amount of influence, obviously, given how much money he's. >> going to take back epstein. you say that he meant some other. >> i don't know, to that point. you go, epstein, i don't think you come. >> back, but you. >> and you can both stop talking. i mean, right, and try to deportation. >> i mean, the, the anonymous quotes from the white house and axios today make fun of his inability, musk's inability to buy a wisconsin supreme court seat. so the notion that his political capital is ■waning is

very much in play. >> i mean, it was proved at. >> the ballot box. i wanted. >> to run by more than they most likely would have if he had never been involved. i know. >> but where do you think? >> and then there's doge, which he did not want to entertain. questions. >> he's got 20,000 people in the federal government lost a couple. >> of weeks ago. he just. >> you know, see the numbers. >> to me and asked why i was attacking him when, you know. >> well, where's david? he'll give an example. one of the reasons why i thought you should buy tesla is because i thought that he had worked closely with the president and the federal highway administration would say that he could drive on the interstate most cars. where do you think that is now? that kind of. that's my point. my two turn multiple. >> i mean, you don't know, jim. you don't know. >> no. you kind of do know. >> well, i don't all right. fin. >> then it's in trouble. yeah. i want to make a let's do it. i want to bury i want to bury a hatchet. let's let's let them be on i-95. bury the hatchet in his head. no. 95 epstein. >> austin autonomous begins next week at a very, very small

level. but it begins. and to your point, there are no nationwide rules. i talked to sean duffy, the department of transportation had about it. they want to make nationwide rules because they think it's a competitive issue in terms of this country versus in a race with china, for example. i don't know where musk comes out on this. well, i back to the original point. there's a lot at stake for his companies given their how often they touch the federal government. >> look, i think that this his technology is superior in every way to waymo. my money is on waymo. >> now what. >> waymo is the one that's going to go. but this is like a horse race. this thing came up lame. this thing came up lame. waymo is going away. >> you have been day in, day out backing musk's technology. >> that's because. >> that's over. >> that's because of the fundamentals. i mean, the fundamentals i mean that was you know, that was pre epstein. >> i guess we just have to wait

and see what's next. >> we're going. >> to get to something. >> someone's going to get to ask him in austin next week. yeah. about all of this. >> you would think. so i he show up on somebody's podcast i don't know, there were, you know, rumors that he's going to show up on somebody's podcast. that is musk. unclear whether that is the case. >> well, can i just say that. >> there's going to be more to this. >> that this is the best business story i've ever seen? >> it's incredible. i mean, yesterday, can you guys during the. >> day i mean. >> your. >> phone is like what? >> everybody's texting everybody. >> did you know. this one? you couldn't get anything done. this is it. this is just the greatest story ever told. >> and we were waiting for it and waiting. it never happened because everybody's like, oh, it's going to blow up sometime. >> you know. >> just come. >> back to something. let's say he was. >> no, you don't understand, david. they love each other. >> well, how. >> was that? >> they look, you know, today's d-day. what kind of day was that? >> yeah, that was a great day for america and the freedom of europe, my friend. well. >> that was a bizarre. >> came up yesterday. >> when the head of germany

comes. >> for you. >> that's what i said. that would have been a great time to really focus on like, you know, like like germany, which we need. >> although i thought he had a good chancellor, actually had a good day. >> my country was liberated. >> i thought that was amazing, that he said that. >> was actually. >> very good, right? he should have tweeted that. that was just he actually just said it. >> that was liberation day. >> liberation day. >> lots more to get to this morning. of course the jobs number. broadcom last night a new milestone for microsoft. take a look at the premarket as they did enjoy some solid job prints after the scare of adp midweek. stay with us. >> nothing stands still not technology not the market and not franklin templeton. we've been a firm in motion for over 75 years, always innovating. today we're a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the

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then we had musk trump. so now this is convivial. okay. the analysts are slowly but surely turning on george kurtz the ceo. today we had one bernstein goes by to hold. why? it's too expensive in my time, david. i have found that's a lousy reason to downgrade, because it often turns out that the stock is cheap when we see the numbers. that's what's going to happen here. my travel trust owns it. we've owned it forever. george kurtz is remarkable. he did 100. he visited 130 accounts in 100 days. after that glitch that occurred that shut down a lot of terminals. he lost almost no business. even delta still does business. and they've got a lawsuit there or they're fighting that way. but i just think you go with george. do not sell it. i know that we rubrik is done. done well in cyber palo alto. zscaler has been the hottest. but don't abandon ship crowdstrike. it's a very expensive stock. everybody knows

that. but david, you know, very expensive does not necessarily mean bad because palantir is very expensive. yes. why did i call it planter? because yesterday was still one more stunning appearance by alex. >> alex karp joined us on the ten for an interview. and yet he doesn't disappoint. >> no he doesn't. no, no, he's. >> he brings the heat every time. >> he really does. i mean, i got you got to. i actually love the guy. i do. he's philadelphia's own. he's crazy. he's difficult. i mean, you know, in other words, he's one of us. but i will say that i like this about this is what i. why? this is why i like karp. everything else, take it or leave it. but that that stock is really expensive. but so what? >> yeah. it's been. so what? until it isn't. right. at some point. but unfortunately, they don't ring a bell. >> we should just take the shirt off and carry the gun. he's a crack shot. you don't know that. maybe you do. i read the biography. it's a very interesting figure. i you know what? he and must should get together because they could restrain each other. >> oh, yeah. right. all right.

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>> the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen. invest like the future is watching. >> microsoft is rising in the premarket, a day after hitting a fresh record high for the first time in 11 months. the tech giant reclaimed its title as the world's most valuable company, slightly surpassing nvidia. jim, today i think it's bernstein goes to 540. you're talking about open ai and what it means for azure. >> yeah, i thought it was a great just a great piece. and i think that i've known more has written for a long time. and this is a very level headed piece. david, when i read this piece, all i can think of is this is the one that is the least controversial of the large cap stocks right now. it's software. no one really cares about software when it comes to national security. it's had a pretty good relationship with everybody. it's kind of got a swiss thing going. at the same time, satya is a tough guy. he doesn't tolerate anything. so i think it works. amy hood, fantastic cfo. this i own this

stock and this is the lovey blanket of magnificent seven. yeah. no. >> to your point, not in the crosshairs of the doj or the ftc in some way. obviously, at the center of ai in many ways, although still questions certainly your friend in mind, marc benioff questions some of their enterprise software in terms of ai capability and what it really can do for companies. >> i know that george kirsch did for a while too, because microsoft people he said, cybersecurity not that great. they are now buddies. they were both involved with that glitch. but yeah, other than benioff, i don't know anyone who has a really bad word about microsoft. even though i've got to tell you, i do not use copilot. i mean, how many times do you use copilot? >> i think it's pretty pretty often used by especially corporates. yeah. >> see, i find that, you know, there's. so this i've got to tell you this the perplexity is my home page. >> what? really? >> i thought. >> you were all. >> grok.

>> all the time. >> had too many. >> last week. >> brock had a sudden. >> saying bye bye and bye bye tech. tesla. automotive. >> musk. now. >> you know, i just know what, elon. you're nothing to me now. not a brother. you're not a friend. i don't want to know you okay. >> let's get the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange with the big board. it's the generation essentials group, a media and entertainment company celebrating its listing via spac at the nasdaq ipo. omada health on squawk today. virtual healthcare. >> i thought that gentleman made a lot of sense. i like what he said. i do feel that anything that can make that can help a patient in a world where doctors have 15 minutes. i like it. david, you know that the revolving door doctor system is not a good one. you need more help. and by the way, one of the things that i with doctor with medicare, i'm a private payer. medicare is does not do

everything you like. switching from a switching from a private plan that you have for a company to medicare is, is really eye opening and something that is you regret, but there's nothing you can do because. >> you're paying for it. i got a few movers this morning. we haven't really delved into anything. >> what are. >> you. doing on the jobs report that you want to, like, hit on at all this morning or care. about job? no, no. it's over. yeah. >> no, i mean. >> like. >> what is he talking about? >> what am the bureau of labor statistics released their annual measure of employment and unemployment in the country. yes. and it actually did have the effect of reversing our market to some extent or increasing the gains, some of which you see right there. ten year also yields perked up a bit, i believe, if i'm not mistaken on bit better than expected numbers. >> you see those revisions? >> yeah. >> can i just say that. >> i.

>> did if ellen had stuck around, which i now think is probably irreparable, i think his next thing would have been to give that contract to somebody who doesn't have a revision that is so huge that you realize that you traded off a number that was irrelevant. i'm telling you, that's incredible. look at the revisions. i am. >> i am looking at the revisions. yeah. they're large. okay. so what's your point? well, my point is underlying statistical, the. >> response rate is degraded for years. yeah. they're shooting. >> in the dark. >> i feel that the numbers not as strong as it looks. and so therefore, you know, you got to smooth them. i'm saying you have to smooth the numbers. >> by the way, of the 139 110 was either healthcare or hospitality. >> see i never want to see. i always think healthcare is a drag on the economy. the hospitality is very good. i mean, look, you still have like a vail resorts last night. not great. >> you know, restaurants added 30 k. >> i know i just it's unbelievable. it's really amazing. that's that's a lot of restaurants opening up. there's a lot of still pent up people

who want to have their own company. and i think it's terrific. >> it is not a number one would expect there that the president would start getting on jerome powell over the weekend, perhaps saying number lower rates. >> right. oh my god, i, i knew it was you ellen. you broke my heart. you broke. >> my heart. i'm not dumb. like everybody says we love we love fredo jim. we're again a few points from six k, which we. >> just came on this morning. it was talking about six k, and my colleague ben has the six. has the s&p 6000 hat. and i thought it was a relic. i thought it was like kind of an archeological find. well it turns out that it's every bit as alive as we thought. david. >> yeah, it is alive. one name that's not doing as well. >> perhaps you go broadcom i'm going to tell you. >> listen just give me a chance. and yes of course i'm going broadcom. it's one of the few trillion dollar companies we have. the move up has been nothing short of extraordinary. >> not this year. >> but more last year. and the

earnings are not being particularly well received. that's all i'm saying okay. all right. now you're going to sit here and just defend hock tan till the end of the year. >> oh i sure am. i actually think that this reminds me of the 386 to 486 move by intel, where you knew that you were going to have a crush, the gross margins, and then you had earnings explosion. the analysts downgraded the three. it was one of the greatest runs ever when they went to the three to the 46. that's what this is down nine i say you buy hock tan's giving. you buy because he says next year is going to be terrific. they are the other i, i love the call and i love. >> taking issue with the i part of their business. i mean. >> nobody's going to turn the other part is going to turn. and by the way, the software for vmware, fantastic. the people who are selling it right now, they are blind to opportunity, okay? they want to sell it because they read headlines and it says, well, you know what? it's not so good. this is not lulu, where there was a piece by jefferies today which said, get out now. >> probably not people selling

it anyway. it's probably machines. yeah. >> it could be. it could be machines because they see it's down. that takes a lot of courage. >> yes. the algorithm. >> is a great stock. you don't get the look if you want to. you can wait till monday because when they hit things down they want to prove that they're right. but this was a monster. >> sales next year in the ballpark of roughly 30 billion. that's 4 to 5 billion above current sell side consensus suggests potential for numbers to inflect higher. that's a bit of the note. >> did you. >> see the one. >> of the see how much he bought. >> hock tan? >> oh my god, they bought a huge amount. this is just a coiled spring. yeah, it's a coiled spring. and people. look, we had an august 2nd years ago where people, people sold it. and then one of the board members came in with one of the biggest buys i've ever seen. this stock goes down. you'll see that again. >> yeah. that's not been the case at nvidia. it's been there's been some high profile selling. >> yeah there was a lot of selling. >> yeah. by the way hock tan did talk about the ai guidance which was sort of the bright spot of the guide. take a listen to that. >> and what we are seeing and

what we have quite a bit of visibility increasingly is increased deployment of xpus next year and much more than we originally thought and hand in hand with it, of course, more, more and more networking. what we're seeing today, based on what we have visibility on 26, is to be able to ramp up this ai revenue in the same trajectory. >> well. >> i will say he's got he's got the customers. i mean, i just think that people don't understand that this is something he has helped a lot of companies with another kind of chip that is not a gpu, it's not a cpu, and he owns that market, by the way. it was good for good for annette too. >> yeah. which got an upgrade today. >> yeah. and that makes. >> sense for morgan stanley.

>> that makes sense. and i think that j street is just fantastic. but when i go over broadcom i come back and say the people who are selling it, they just don't understand that this is a big transition that that next year at this time is going to produce a bountiful results. just stay long. stay long. you don't need you don't need to get out. you don't need to. this is not lulu. >> speaking of which, lulu comps disappointed, especially in china, which is almost a fifth of sales gym city today. several disappointments all hitting at once. >> yeah, lulu, i have to admit, i thought this quarter could have had a chance because i thought that they had done a kitchen sink quarter. david. there was nothing kitchen sink about the previous quarter. this is a slowing story. i like this jefferies piece. the headline might be time to call chip. remember chip sell shares now. >> well is. >> it you don't see that. >> is it impact of tariffs that's pressuring or tariffs. >> yeah. >> inventory as they say more

cautious discerning consumer. those are the words of the ceo of on the call earnings call. cautious and discerning. >> america. >> not great. it can take a listen actually did. >> we have something. >> yeah we got a little something. >> got a littlegot a little somg from the call. take a listen here. >> we continue to see a more cautious discerning consumer. we're definitely not happy where the growth is in the us. but relative to the market and our performance versus others please that we're putting on share pleased with the reaction to the newness and with the mix of newness that's coming as we continue to get back into stock on the new core that she's reacting to and making those adjustments and the newness that we have planned. and i think a bit of the delta between the canadian and the us market and the consumer we see is we're not seeing the same discerning consumer in canada as we are seeing in the us in terms of traffic, as well as some other

metrics that we monitor. >> so that was calvin mcdonald obviously discussing the quarter. and you can see stock's down about 17%. >> yeah. well look i think that sometimes when you analyze retail you've got to watch inventory. and all the analysts and all the companies are really well aware of this. and i've been finding inventories low throughout this period, which i think is amazing given what you had to bring in from from overseas inventory insanity. jeffries points out lulu's inventory grew 23%. well, that', that's that's an ill advised strategy to have that much inventory. that means you got caught. it means the prices have to come down. it means there's going to be a fire sale on their stuff. and by the way, i think one of the things that we should mention, calvin macdonald is a great ceo. he's a great ceo. i mean, so this this is really jarring.

>> guys. there's a bit of an ipo fervor going on. yes. a number of weeks ago, we went public at 40. >> and you liked her. >> we i. >> forget who. >> liked corbett. jim cramer liked her. >> we've i was the only one in the world. even michael schroeder didn't like koreans much. i didn't. >> go that far. but you did have a good call. you did. >> in fact. >> i don't know if you. >> like it. do you heard that? >> do you like it at 146? do you like it at 146? >> no, it's a short squeeze meme stock here. >> no speak of i mean, i don't know if circle could be considered that, but yesterday, obviously this company went public and had an incredible first day of trading and has been adding to that now as well. obviously, the issuer of a stablecoin. yeah, with a prospect of a lot of other businesses that come from that. the approvals sort of it's the approved stablecoin, if you will, far better than many would say. i shouldn't use the word better, but then tether is perceived, even though it is the leader in terms of size circles.

>> i could see people buying that stock. >> up here. but you know, this next week you get chime coming public and suddenly we have ipo market that seems to be rewarding those companies. >> and then after we figure out tariffs it's going to be mergers. it's very hard to do it right now. but i think goldman sachs is very attractive here. >> waldron. this jim this piece in the ft. yesterday john waldron told the goldman podcast we're moderating our risk positioning. seems like the sensible thing for us to do. >> look, i think that it's the, the division that that does this kind of stuff in the m&a division. it's like 30 people. >> yeah, i mean there are a lot of other businesses. goldman's in when he's talking about moderating the risk position. i'm not quite sure what he's referring to specifically, but also in prime brokerage in terms of multi-manager firms and how it's just, you know, how much leverage you're giving everybody to trade with. >> you want to. >> yeah, you. >> want to get back to being more of a you. >> always want to be. >> a dry cleaner.

>> but to your point, jim, if ipos really start going gangbusters, and obviously when you see the performance of even circle, that's got to get people's attention. i think the window's open man. hit it. well i think. >> employees will come in and say listen boss, this is i would like some shares. this is fabulous. >> yeah. and then and then the other question of course on m&a, perhaps a bit harder to answer i think at this point. but i think there's a lot of dialog is what i continue to hear, whether that will actually result in deals being announced later in the year still unclear. you know what that would be beneficial. >> to know? >> actually, they're pure plays in goldman. i mean, you could think of evercore or lazard or moles or, you know, any number, any number of other companies that are. truly djt, pj. djt may benefit from a significant increase in merger activity. i think goldman, which has so many other businesses. >> well, look, i'll tell you how buoyant this market is. when airbnb reported last, people didn't like it and spain was kicking people, people out. they cut down dramatically. a lot of people downgraded. and here it is. it's making a run. it's

making a run again. these stocks are very hard. doordash is making a run. uber is making run that again, david. that class of ipo is just bubbling. look at doordash. it's incredible. so i think that that those are again reasons why you want to come public i like it. >> we'll see if we get more again time scheduled for next week. and that's later in the week. >> people feel great. yeah. look there's a lot of fintech. everybody always says fintech. >> there's plenty that have been waiting. you know, as we know, carl, plenty of i mean there are lots of venture investors who want out and a lot of employees as well at many companies that have been looking to the public markets and haven't been able to get there now, they haven't had to because the availability of capital has been such that they've been able to continue to fund themselves quite successfully. but we'll see if we get more. >> it's very hard to resist when you see these things. you just kind of say, you know what? you're bankers are knocking. all the people that they've

mentioned, they're knocking on your door saying, hey, listen, i know you said you never want to come public, but let me just tell you something. this market, your stock boom, boom. and then they say, well, you know what? let's just do it right. >> yeah. >> let's just do it. how come i can't stop thinking about that? >> about what? about musk and trump. >> it's kind of. it kind of engulfs. it engulfs everything. >> it's unbelievable. >> is it your cerebellum? >> where is it? it's really it's unique. >> no, i mean because you just think like, you know, apple was controversial. yeah. india going to apple. apple's not controversial i got to we got a developer's conference. >> it's terrific. well we got a very we got a significant rally going on right here with the nasdaq up 1.5% nvidia is up over 2%. apple up 2%. meta up. yeah. what accounts for it jim. >> well i think that that that people felt that that unemployment number was about as good as you can get. now. we downplayed the unemployment number because of epstein. i'm

sorry because of the mistake. >> but we led with the story that was appropriate to lead with. but yes, it's. subantivelu got the number that you really hoped for. you've got a number that gives trump a chance to be able to say, listen, i think that we're going to have to cut you have enough information that says maybe a cut is right. and that's what this is what happens. i mean, it really is a beautiful thing right now. this is what i call it's a prelude to a summer rally. look at these stocks going up. >> we'll see. jim, i mean, jobless claims are at an eight month high. auto sales just had their biggest monthly drop in five years. >> and they close. if they have to close the auto plants because of the rare earth i mean, wow. i mean, yeah, you're going to have to cut. >> by the way, the president's now with the new post too late. we know who he's referring to. yeah is a disaster. europe has had ten rate cuts. we've had none. despite him. our country's doing great. go for a full point okay. >> so he is on. he's on powell

already. yes. yeah. even though we got a better than anticipated jobs. >> number this would have been a great day to take a break from from attacking. >> no breaks man. no breaks. >> no breaks. >> no. >> you know what. relentless jay is not. he's a hard guy to roll. see he's got that thing. he's got that thing called integrity. shoot. it comes in handy, you know? you ever try it, you're there. right? with the integrity. >> what does europe have to i mean, yeah, okay. europe is a basket case or what? >> well, no. >> not anymore. >> no. not anymore. now, david, if you look at spain. >> carl, i know you're making a face. i can't see it. but economic growth is not. >> polish stock market is up 40% this year. >> well, they're having a better year than we are. >> what's the eu's gdp going to be up? >> what we do is try to wreck corporate. >> they're catching up. they're narrowing the spread. i mean they're printing positive numbers and we're printing negative numbers. well. >> look what we do every quarter, every quarter that i read, it's just somebody said, listen, trump heard our quarter. trump. they never say that you see because that gets you in

trouble. but trump did this. trump did that. i'm just substituting for what really happened here, david. and we're we're playing and i know the president loves tariffs. but everybody there isn't. there are like there's like five companies that weren't hurt by tariffs. are they hurt by tariffs in spain i know that i read one brown brown foreman's been hurt and they didn't even need to. >> you see the numbers this week down 18. >> yes i can't believe that. brown foreman agave spirits are the hottest spirits. and herradura were down. they were down in the teens david the teens. the teens. >> what's in the teens? oh, brown foreman. >> what? what's in the. what's in the teens? >> what's in the teens? >> it's called agave. you know what agave goes into? >> i'm aware of what's my. it's the only thing i. >> margaritas. >> i'm aware margaritas. >> hey, by the. >> way, i missed what's in the teens. >> a lot of the agaves were up big, and they were blaming agave. they were blaming agave? >> what's in the teens? >> they were saying, oh, we know

might be gop. oh, they said gen z. we've heard that before. >> anybody know what's in the teens? >> lower your prices. >> okay. we still don't know. okay. anybody. julia, you want to you want to take a shot here? no. okay. >> i don't know, ellen. you're nothing. >> to me. >> that said, david's right. rally in place. dow's up almost 600 back above six k. for the first time since february. bonds will get more fed. speak today koogler harker at 130. plus a rig count at one. jim. we'll see if that number continues to go lower right now. ten year 447. don't go away. >> the bond report is brought to >> the bond report is brought to you by got eyelid itching, crusties and swelling

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mcdonald's. it just never works. today, loop capital downgraded it. they're worried about this. the chicken strips and that they threaten growth. and i'm going to say that you're going to look back a year from now. and people are going to say well chicken strips i mean what was that about? mcdonald's is a buy. people aren't even taking it down today. i've got to tell you, just a great company. well run, fantastic company. and they just do a lot of things right. i was going to hope that it was down so i could say buy now. >> jim. next week we're going to get apple developers conference. yes, robotaxi austin and then jensen a couple of appearances. one in london. >> paris. yep. look i think jensen, remember the last thing you said on my show. the president has a plan. and i don't think that was interpreted as saying the president's plan is going to be bad for nvidia. now, there are people who think that jensen is a globalist. that's the word that i hear from

the white house. he's a globalist, meaning that who does he really play for? he plays for the united states. the hell with you. you think he plays for somebody else? get lost. all right. >> are we confident musk plays for the united states? >> yes. he plays. he's a yes. yes i think that look, i just think if it weren't for the fact of the, the problem of what? the president where. >> are they. >> going to deport him to. no they're not. >> newsweek news says today that russia has offered asylum if he. >> ever needs russia. >> they cut the they cut. >> interest rates. he's looking for an excuse to get him and all his descendants on a rocket and go to mars already. it's like, all right, i've had it with you people. >> he's got to wait till mars is close, which is going to be a couple more years. >> he's going to get there. >> look at mother nature on the run. 2025, jim. >> good weekend. yeah, you can see it tonight. >> fantastic. >> mad money, 6 p.m. eastern time as we're holding six k. time as we're holding six k. don't go away. it's a smart move to get a second opinion.

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>> good friday morning welcome to squawk on the street i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla david faber live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks are going strong this morning after better than expected jobs report. a lot to get into there, but we're looking at more than 1% gain here for the s&p coming back. the nasdaq up 1.3%. so technology leads and the dow is up 552 points. as for treasuries take a look at the reaction to jobs they're selling. with yields higher as the odds go down for two rate cuts this year the ten year yield 4.47%. coming up this hour. council of economic advisers chair stephen myron joins us first comments on the jobs report from the white house and how the latest on tariffs and trade are factoring into the economic picture. plus, the latest on the trump musk feud rocking wall street and washington. we'll talk about the impact on tesla investors on the tech community. but right now

we've got every sector higher in the s&p 500. palantir is actually leading the way after a sell off. tesla is higher by 3.6% after yesterday's skirmish left tesla down double digits. let's talk about jobs because on one hand, the number was better than expected. yeah, right. overall. got a better headline number than we than we were looking for the month of may. more than 130,000 jobs. unemployment rate stays at 4.2%. but look where the jobs are. there's a lot of moderation here. beneath the surface, health care was the big contributor more than it's been on average, 62,000 jobs added leisure and hospitality very strong. that was a lot because of restaurants. but we've also heard some bullish commentary lately from the hotel. so maybe not so surprising. and social assistance. look at where the jobs weren't. and i highlight that because you're starting to see the tariff impact and also doge right. federal government federal government lost 22,000 jobs. that was the most since 2020. manufacturing was a job

loser this month down 8000 jobs. retail trade. so as you can see, you're starting to see the industries that we've been talking about that are dealing with higher costs and higher tariffs. and david, the other sort of moderation, weaker points in the report, 95,000 downward revisions to the prior two months. participation is at a three month low participation in the labor market. so these are things it's good that we got an overall better number and better wages too. but beneath the surface economists are saying things are definitely moderating. >> yeah. what do you make of the revisions? i don't know, jim seemed to think they were fairly significant and or at least get at the underlying data in terms of whether it's even reliable at this point. >> well, 100,000 revisions is a lot because we just we only grew may by 139,000. right. so if you strip out the revision like that on this month, it would be pretty significant. i just showed a chart of workers for part, part time workers, which grew in the month for economic reasons because they couldn't get a job. and look at that's a that's a cautionary thing to

watch. watch that spread. right. because more part time workers and fewer full time workers is a sign of weakness. >> temporary help down 20 not good. renmark points out that the number of unemployed because they quit is down to 9.8. that's a cycle low, as we now are getting the sense that consumers are a bit nervous to quit their jobs. >> and those are some of the parts of the fabric, right, which which lead to an overall weaker number. it reminds me so much of what our my conversation with fed governor adriana kugler yesterday. she was kind of surprising guys as a hawk. she's worried about inflation. she's not as worried about jobs. i say surprising because she comes from the labor market. so i would think she'd be a little more cautious about some of the cautionary signals and jobs. but no, she's concerned about inflation. listen to what she told me. >> my primary focus right now at this juncture is inflation. i think once tariffs are implemented fully, we can then

start talking about a greater slowdown because those increases in prices will call for a reduction in demand. but that hasn't happened yet. so it doesn't make sense for us to do something. >> you know i pushed her on whether, you know the market expects two cuts. is that realistic? she wouldn't really go there, but did make it clear that she sees the impact of tariffs as inflationary. she's looking at the soft data on expectations for prices. she's looking at the one year inflation expectations. and she says we got to be more vigilant. she's also she grew up in columbia, which is sort of interesting because she grew up in a world where there was double digit inflation and shortages on grocery shelves, which i think makes her very sensitive to inflation expectations. it doesn't want to get this one wrong again for the fed. totally opposite to what president trump is hosting about now about cutting interest rates. she, for one, is not in that camp. >> right? just one piece of the fed speak. this week we're getting some fresh comments from governor bowman just hitting the

tape. and for that, we're going to turn to our steve liesman busy morning, steve. >> hey, carl. you're correct, governor bowman, but she is the newly approved vice chair for bank supervision, not sworn in yet. so she's still governor bowman. but the important thing is, is her first speech after being approved by the senate. and she's promising a broad review of bank regulations in the united states. she says the core principles of regulation should be pragmatism. she advocates tailoring bank regulations that is more specific by the kind and size of bank, reevaluating the guidance that the fed and agencies give to the banks, as well as ratings and review of capital, which may be the most important, she says regulators should look at total capital requirements, not do the specifically one by one and check boxes. so fed will soon publish a proposal to address concerns with the enhanced supplemental leverage ratio. it's an important thing. i can explain it at length some other

time, bowman says he'll review the community bank framework, including capital requirements, and suggest broad review of the dodd-frank act. one quote from her speech, the task of policymakers and regulators is not to eliminate risk from the banking system, but rather to ensure that risk is appropriately and effectively managed. just one thing i would add to your jobs report, guys is just looking at all of this. right now. it looks pretty much like the market still thinks the fed cuts in september. they can take off june and july because it's in line. there's no crisis when it comes to jobs. but i agree with sarah's take that there does look to be some, i guess, incipient weakness. >> okay steve. thank you, steve liesman i think that one takeaway is bowman is very different than barr on financial supervision. a lighter touch there. president trump posting about fed chair powell on truth social, as i noted after the jobs report, writing quote, too late at the fed is a disaster.

europe has cut ten rates ten times. we've had none. despite him. our country is doing great. go for a full point rocket fuel. let's get more on the white house reaction to the jobs report. joining us is council of economic advisors chair steven myron. you really think the fed can cut one full point in this environment? steven, the market is going the other way. >> good morning and thanks for having me. i mean, look, you know inflation is very well behaved. core inflation in the last couple of prints was at the lowest level since march of 2021. right. so that's undid all of the biden administration's inflation. and inflation is pretty well behaved. there's no evidence whatsoever of incipient reemerging inflation, inflation threats. and i think that we do have to acknowledge that the president has a really good track record of being right on monetary policy. he was right in 2019, 2018 saying that inflation was not a threat. consensus eventually came to his view. he was right in 2021 that inflation was going to reemerge and consensus came to his view. again, i think we have to acknowledge he's got a pretty good track record on this.

>> i think there's a there's an argument for why the fed should pay closer attention to moderation in jobs and in the overall economy, and i and i highlighted some of the weaker spots in the jobs report today. but and yes, inflation is behaving itself now. but most economists think we haven't really fully seen the impact of tariffs yet, whether it's retailers hoarding in, you know, inventories or waiting on price increases. but that that's coming. you see that all over the survey data. >> i mean you see it in some survey data. but the survey data tend to swing around based on sentiment based on the stock market. and there's not really a good, you know, a good correlation between what happens in survey data in recent history and what happens in hard economic data. that correlation has softened quite a bit. so what i would say is there's no evidence of it thus far, perhaps an emergence, but there's no evidence thus far. and we did this experiment in 2018, 2019, and we saw that there was zero zero macroeconomic evidence of material increases in inflation whatsoever. indeed, the fed's core measure of inflation went

down over that period. >> sure, it wasn't as widespread. i mean, this is 10% tariffs across the board with many trading partners. and just look at lululemon. look at all the retailers. they've lowered their profit guidance on this. they're either going to have to eat it in profit margins or pass it on to the consumer. we hear about price increases every day. but you know chair myron let's let's stick with jobs. are you getting concerned about what's underneath the surface here? >> look, you know, it was it was i think it was a strong jobs report. i heard your comments earlier. i think, you know, i think it was quite stronger than that. this is the third jobs day beat in a row, right? the third time the president beat expectations in a row. he's created over 500,000 jobs since he was inaugurated. and that's while cutting the federal workforce by 50,000 jobs thanks to efforts to trim waste, waste, fraud and abuse. so i think this was pretty strong. and i think if you look under the surface, there's some really promising details. so all of the job gains since the president's inauguration were native born americans, all of them. right? in that contrast to the last two years of a mirage of a strong labor market in which two thirds

of job gains went to foreign born workers, that was because of the surge in immigration from the biden administration. and everyone predicted all sorts of labor market doom when the when the president closed the border to protect americans. but the opposite has happened. >> you can't argue that things are really, really strong and that the fed needs to cut rates a point. >> well, you can argue that the economy is normalizing to what it was before, to what it was before covid and before the biden administration's reckless stimulus levels. and if the economy is normalizing, then, you know, inflation is normalized and other things could normalize. also. >> what else do you see in the data right now? because it's been a little bit mixed. i mean, i agree, i think it's been more resilient than people thought, given some of the high levels of uncertainty and the sort of weaker consumer confidence numbers. but when you say normalizing, what do you expect for growth for the rest of the year? >> well, so it's hard to give. it's hard to give a very precise forecast for growth, because we have yet to see exactly how the tax bill shapes up between the reconciliation process, between the house and the senate. and we have yet to see exactly how the

trade deal shape up as they as they will, i expect, continue to be made in coming weeks. so it's hard to give a precise forecast when the policy details are are still being worked out. but i think that the economy is going to be is going to be pretty darn good. the combination of tax incentives for investment that are in the one big, beautiful bill to create an investment boom, tax incentives for increased labor supply, deregulation, cutting red tape, energy abundance, trade renegotiation, opening foreign markets to american products. these are this is an incredibly powerful economic policy combination. >> i mean, there is continued concern, stephen, though about the what is it, 2.4 trillion in deficits, at least the cbo sees being generated by this bill over the next ten years. we talk about that concern in the bond market, particularly reflected perhaps in the 30 year. you know, i just sort of get your perspective. you mentioned the reckless spending by the biden administration. should that not also be sort of a tag for the trump administration? >> so i think i think the mainstream analysis here is totally off. right. so if you look at what the cbo said yesterday, they they for the

first time, put a dollar figure on the tariffs that the president has put in place so far. and that figure was $3 trillion in total. right. so that pays for all of the cbo's estimated expenses for the tax bill. and then on top of that, on top of that, the cbo isn't counting the improvements in economic growth. if we get economic growth to 3% through a combination of policies, that creates an additional $4 trillion over a decade. and then on top of that, because of our policies of pushing the supply side of the economy out, creating an economy that produces more with the same amount of goods and services, with the same amount of capital and labor input, more capital accumulation as well, more labor supply. right. pushing out the supply side brings down inflationary pressures and that will in time bring down interest rates that will shave additional trillion dollars plus off the off of the deficit. >> that's you know, you raise an interesting debate. sure, myron, that that revenue from tariffs on the cbo score is the administration want that revenue or do you want the reshoring which ostensibly would mean you wouldn't need to pay tariffs if you brought production back home? >> well, look, if you bring production back home, you get

revenue from the other kinds of taxes. you get revenue from income taxes and capital and corporate taxes. if we succeed in reshoring and i think that we will, that's an economic boom at home. more jobs, more wages, more investment, more corporate profits. and then that comes in through other tax revenue means. so there's no there's you know the trade off here is between different types of revenue. not the not the idea that we're going to get more revenue in aggregate. >> are you surprised we got construction spending now negative year on year for the first time since 2019. shouldn't that number be a little bit higher if development's counting on some of the measures you're pointing to down the road. >> yeah. well look i mean construction job growth has been positive in every in every print since the president was inaugurated. and, you know, and i think i'm not 100% on this number, but i think it was like 8000, 8000 new jobs last month in this field. so, you know. >> there's gaynor. yeah. >> it was it was a it was a real gainer. right. and so, you know, i think that the spending data tend to be a little bit more volatile than the jobs data. that's why people tend to focus

on the jobs data so much. so i wouldn't be surprised if there's ultimately some revisions there. >> stephen, to the extent you give advice to the president and the cabinet around longer term economic trends, i'm curious as how you view ai and the impact it conceivably will have in terms of jobs as it as it takes over certain functions that otherwise were done by humans and can do them more efficiently. and obviously companies are going to be driving to continue to cut costs. how concerned are you? >> look, you know, i think this is an area where economists should be humble. economists are not the ones who are able to really predict the how, how a radically transformative technology like ai is going to affect society. but what i will say is that we've been surprised by things in the past. and, you know, when you you have a new technology like like social media, you know, that creates new jobs to there are there are, you know, many thousands of social media strategists and that didn't exist before social media existed. who knows what kind of jobs ai will create? you know, very often when new technology comes along, whole new classes of jobs are created

that nobody thought existed before. and you know, these, you know, these predictions about doom for the labor market from technology have been going on for, you know, decades or even centuries and millennia. so, you know, let's see. >> well, you know, who disagrees with you on the big beautiful bill now is elon musk. and we've been watching this epic feud between musk and the president play out on social media yesterday. tesla's rebounding. is the president serious about canceling some of his federal contracts? and what and what do you see at stake? this is clearly an issue for the markets. >> yeah. so that's not something that i discuss with the president. i you know, i discussed the economy and economic policy and not details of particular companies like that. but what i will say about the one big beautiful bill is if it does not pass, it's going to be a disaster. it's going to be the largest tax hike in history. $4 trillion plunge the economy into recession. many millions of people will lose their jobs and health insurance. it's a bad outcome and it's not an outcome anybody should want. >> chair. myron, thank you for the time today. appreciate it. on jobs and other hot topics.

that is the council of economic advisors chair, steven myron. here's our roadmap for you. for the rest of the hour, we will talk much more about the war of words between president trump and elon musk, what it means for the tech community that had cozied up to the president. >> plus, goldman's chief economist, jan hatzius, will join us, give us his first take on that jobs report. >> and downward dog lululemon falling hard after cutting guidance and commenting on tariffs. we're going to break down that move. dow holding some gains here up 522 a big our squawk on the street continues after this break. >> the two most powerful words in. >> the world that we know are what if. and today thousands of organizations are saying what if with the power to act on those words like never before? what if you could empower every employee with a limitless digital workforce, one that listens, learns, and acts all day, every day? well, this isn't some far fetched science fiction fantasy

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design for thoughtful living thuma. >> president trump is not interested in a call with tesla ceo elon musk in order to try to resolve their feud. a senior white house official told nbc news that. and of course, this does come after that incredible back and forth yesterday between the two. tusk ventures co-founder and managing partner bradley tusk joins us now. we'll talk about that and the fallout. of course, the tech community. get to the circle ipo. bradley, first. you know, i know you don't own any tesla. i don't know if you own any spacex or exi, but i'm just curious what your thoughts would be okay if you were an owner of any of these musk companies and what risk he has taken on as a result of the incendiary stuff that was just going back and forth yesterday? >> yeah. look, i would be concerned because ultimately i have always held that tesla share price is sort of the result of incredible retail enthusiasm about elon musk, but

it really doesn't reflect the fundamental economics of the car industry or tesla specifically. and so there's a lot of room to fall. it fell yesterday. it looks like it's up about 4% today so far. and then spacex is heavily reliant obviously on nasa and federal contracts. and so, you know, on both fronts, elon's companies really do rely on a the federal government in terms of contracts and permits and everything else. but b the perception that elon is superhuman, that's what really drives a lot of the value. and perhaps this is the thing that punctures the veil. >> yeah. you know, i mean, his company's touched the government in so many different ways. whether it's tesla, the need for nationwide autonomous driving standards, you can go on from there. and nasa with spacex and on and on. i'm sure neuralink, which we don't talk about or or x, i mean, all of them. what does it mean overall for tech? i mean, is there a broader takeaway, should there be a larger concern here in terms of

perhaps if the president starts to strike back? >> no, because ultimately, the reality is if elon's companies lose, someone else is going to probably win. so if anything, from a total standpoint is probably neutral for tech on the whole. but i think what it does mean is there is this moment in silicon valley when trump was elected, that it was like, oh, if we just play our politics right, we'll be able to cozy up to whoever's in charge and get all of this stuff. and that's not a real strategy, right? you win if you build good companies that sell products and services that consumers want. and yeah, there's regulatory arbitrage that you can always try to do a little bit of. and obviously you want to lobby and everything else. but there was this idea that somehow, oh, if you just sort of play your politics, right, everything's great. and like, that's not how it works. >> yeah. all right. well, we got you here as well. you were, i believe, an early investor in circle, which went public yesterday. shares continue to surge, i don't know at 100

whether you're a seller or not bradley. but obviously a very auspicious debut here. >> right. i've got a six month lock up, so i'm not a seller for six months either way. but yeah. look it's both it's pretty incredible. and in some ways i was listening to chairman myron's interview with you guys a couple of minutes ago about interest rates. it's one of those companies that somehow manages to evade all of the different questions surrounding the economy. so, for example, it's totally digital. so tariffs don't make a difference because crypto regulation is pretty friendly right now. other pressures that companies face don't really make a difference. you know, unemployment rates, all these other things don't really get to become big problems for circle. and so if you were looking for the one company that sort of immune to all the political noise and all of the sort of drama and everything else circle very well may be it. now i'm biased. i'm talking my own book here. i

fully acknowledge that. but it really does happen to be the exact right company for the moment. we're in. >> yeah. jim breyer next, our biggest individual investor outside jeremy allaire. we'll talk to him about this as well. but just on musk, i'm curious what just what you're hearing in your in your world, the venture. yeah. what are people like. what is musk thinking especially the low blow about epstein? like what is he doing? >> yeah, no, because i think the assumption, at least among most venture capitalists, is that elon kind of operates in his own world, for better and for worse. and the choices that he makes often aren't tethered to reality, by the way, sometimes for the better, because sometimes he comes up with ideas like tesla and spacex and neuralink that no one ever thought was possible. and he makes them happen. but then other times, he behaves in the way that an adult human being never would. and what makes him both fascinating and confounding is you kind of never know with him what's real, what's fake, what's logic, what's mania. and

so i think we're all sitting here watching it just as entertained as the rest of the country. but there's no, i don't i don't think the vc world at this point sees him any differently than you do or anyone else does. >> yeah, well, speaking of the vc world, i mean, you have to be encouraged by the performance of not just circle, but core. we've prior to that, i'm curious, are we kind of are we getting a little bit more hopeful in terms of what the ipo market can mean for companies? we're looking for an exit of some kind. >> overall a little bit. so i would say pre-liberation day i had 30 companies go in public circles. stubhub and kodiak circle obviously could not be going better. stubhub has pushed it off for the moment, and i'm not a stubhub insider, so i don't know what they're thinking in terms of timing. kodiak still scheduled the spac in august, so yeah, it's better. but i will say from an investor standpoint, had we not had all this craziness with tariffs and everything else, the case for a rate cut would have been very

clear. and the combination of deregulation and rate cuts really would have fueled the market. and instead of there being positive signs, we would be in the boom of ipos and more m&a in general. and so i think most people in the vc world thought that 2025 was going to be this year, where the burden was finally lifted and things really started to move. and then i think the president introduced a lot of uncertainty that wasn't necessary. and so my hope is that that all goes away. so we can just focus on letting everyone make money. >> oh yeah, brad, the uncertainty is going to go away. sure it is. >> okay. >> yes. yeah. all right. that's a good way to end it bradley. thank you. >> all right. thanks, guys. have a great weekend. >> a lot more on the trump must fall out later on this hour. when former white house insider and chief of staff for mike pence, marc short joins us with his take on the feud. how long it might last. plus, why jp morgan's top strategist says it's time to get away from mega cap growth stocks and bet on one other part of the market. he's going to join us here at post

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big run up into that earnings print guidance roughly in line except for gross margins, with revenue up 46% from last year. on the call, ceo hock tan said i demand could pick up even more during the second half of the year comes amid a big rebound for semis. the sm that's the etf that tracks them on pace for its sixth positive week in the last seven. >> meantime, major averages pacing for another week of gains led by tech. the s&p 500 back above six k for the first time since february. joining us this morning at post nine david kelly is back. jp morgan asset management chief global strategist some pointing out david, the jobs number, the unrounded unemployment number has risen every month this year. >> oh that's right. this was a lot softer than the headline suggested. i mean, to me that's one issue, is that we saw over 600,000 jobs lost according to the household survey. that's very volatile. but that was a negative signal. the other thing is cutting 95,000 out of the prior two months. so we've only averaged 124,000 jobs so far this year per month. over the

first five months of the year, 168,000 last year. and, you know, i'm looking at when i'm looking at a lot of data, which is this sort of slowdown that is gradually seeping up and spreading across the economy. and i think we're missing it because we're looking at headline payroll numbers or the weirdness in terms of trade and gdp. but this economy is gradually slowing down here. >> where where do we think payrolls bottom out in the second half. are you in the sort of 80 to 85 range? >> you know, at the moment i think that it'll it'll be somewhere close to 100,000 jobs as an average going forward. but but it could it could bounce negative. right. and in general. and even that is you know, i think the unemployment rate won't go up, go up much because we're seeing some constraints in terms of immigration, but it's just a slower economy. this is a 1.5% economy. this is not a 3% economy. >> so trump's right fed should be cutting. >> no i think i think i think jay powell is right that he can't cut right now because you've got immigration which is pushing up wages. the wages were strong this morning. and because

you don't have enough labor supply that's going to push up wages a bit. you've also got tariffs which and that has not fed through to inflation yet. but it will we expect to see 3% year over year consumption deflator by by july. >> the fed can't do anything about tariffs or immigration. that's not the kind of inflation that they are used to fighting. and if you're saying there's moderation then and they're restrictive doesn't it just make it worse? >> well first of all i think they're already a little restrictive. but two wrongs don't make a right. the fed has got a responsibility to control inflation. and remember we've also got this fiscal package which is stimulative early on. you're going to have a big bounce in the budget deficit in 2026 which is pure sugar. now if that bill turns out to be if it doesn't pass or more likely, if it gets toned down a little bit, then maybe the fed can think then. but they really need to see, you know, is the rest of washington is the other side of washington going to tone it down in terms of causing inflation for the fed to actually feel comfortable there. so i think they're right to wait and see.

>> so what underlies your 1.5% gdp prediction. >> well, because so far this century the economy has grown at a 2% rate. and that has come from 1.5% productivity growth and half a percent employment growth. the problem is that right now we're seeing not just unauthorized immigration, but we're seeing legal immigration fall. in april, legal immigration fell by 16% in terms of authorized visas year over year. and if you take away that extra employment, you don't have any employment growth because you don't have growth in the labor force, then you're back to 1.5% economy. >> productivity increases as a result of i. >> productivity disappoint. >> well, productivity will long term increase because of ai. but even there you need to do capital spending and you need to do continual innovation. we need to be the leaders in ai. we need to continue to be the leaders in ai. and, you know, i think there are you know, i'm in favor of deregulation in some areas to try to speed things along, but there are a lot of things that are causing businesses to hesitate to invest rather than to go go full bore ahead in terms of investing right now. right. >> well, short term visibility makes it hard to make those

decisions. yeah. david thanks. good to see you, david kelly, we do have a news alert this morning from treasury. let's get back to steve liesman. hey steve. good morning. cnbc has learned that the treasury secretary will shortly announce that economist joe lavorgna will join the treasury secretary as a special counselor. you know, joe lavorgna has been a longtime economist on wall street recently at smbc nikko securities, as well as having spent 20 years at deutsche bank in the first trump administration. he was the chief economist for the council of economic advisors and a special assistant to the president. joe will advise the treasury secretary on all matters macroeconomic, as well as serve as something of an economic spokesperson for the treasury secretary. he has been a supporter of the president's policies from very much an analytical point of view and very upbeat on those policies. and maybe sarah and carl, that has not been the worst point of view, at least since the bottom in early april. >> yep. not surprising, but good to good to see joe joining

treasury. thank you steve liesman. still to come. goldman sachs is first take on this morning's better than expected jobs report and the fed's next move. the chief economist jan hatzius joins us here at post nine next plus lululemon erasing all of its gains from the last five years as shares pace for one of their worst days ever. look at that stock down 20%. we'll talk about what's driving it when we come back. >> real time exchange sector sword is sponsored by sector spider etfs. >> we are going to write the future of health care one where care is more personalized, more accessible and much lower cost. these ipos are important moments, but it is still just the beginning of our story.

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sleeves and the collars. stay stiff all day. get 20% off using code tv at .com. >> stocks. jumping in some early trade after a better than expected jobs number this morning. even with the revisions. our jan hatzius joins us this morning. goldman sachs chief economist and head of global investment research here at post nine. happy jobs friday. once again thank you and great to be here. you did get a little incrementally cautious before the print is that did that get borne out with the revisions do you think? >> well, what we're forecasting is the front month number. so no. but if you look more broadly at the report, i think it was a little bit softer than what the

front month number would suggest downward revisions and also a softer household survey, an increase in the unemployment rate on an unrounded basis, a big decline in the employment to population ratio. so i think there is, you know, slow slowing underneath the surface, but it just wasn't very dramatic. >> our claims and unemployed quitters part of that picture as well. >> yeah, to some degree i think you do have some, you know, weakness in quits. you do have some up drift in claims. the seasonals make it a little bit hard to know to how much of that is really driven by seasonal adjustment distortions. we've had that issue in the post pandemic period. we've seen some weakness in at least the ism non-manufacturing activity. the employment numbers were better. so i do think that we are seeing some signs of deceleration. but again, it's not dramatic and

there's no sign that the economy is at least entering a recession right now. >> what about fed? so post payroll we did see market response. the market still expects two cuts this year, but the odds go from 100% to 70 or so and change percent. does that make sense? i guess that's teeing off of what the hotter wage numbers better overall headline. >> yeah. i mean, directionally it certainly makes sense. i still think that it probably will take quite a while, at least in my baseline, before they bring down rates. the next move, i think very high probability is down. but i think for now, wait and see is probably the right expectation in our baseline. we don't have cuts until the end of the year, until the december meeting. all the risks are to the lower side. so i think the market pricing in more than one cut certainly makes sense from a probability. >> all the rest except for inflation, which seems to be the big question mark about whether we'll get a real meaningful boost of inflation in the second

part of the year because of tariffs, and whether it's a one time thing. >> that's right. and i think we will get a significant increase in inflation. we have about 100 basis points of acceleration. but at the same time i expect this to be a price level effect. and once we've gotten through the tariff related price increases, i would expect sequential inflation to come back down pretty quickly. but that's what we'll find out a lot more. >> so the fed can look look through it. you're saying. >> yes, i think so. but i think you also want to have confidence that that's the right story. this is my expectation and i think it's a reasonable expectation. but that doesn't mean there's certainty that that's what we'll ultimately see. >> meanwhile q2 tracker where where are you guys right now. >> we're at 3.3% 33. so gdp is, you know, badly distorted. it's very difficult to really make much of those numbers. the economy was much stronger in q1

than the -0.2% number would suggest. and i think it's much weaker than a three handle in the second quarter would suggest. >> do you anticipate making changes to your recession odds like you were doing in april? that was crazy, right? >> and, well, it was pretty crazy because you had all these massive changes in tariff policy. so we briefly went to a recession baseline, but then moved back to a recession baseline after most of the reciprocal tariffs were paused. we've brought the recession probability down since then. we brought it down to 35% after the us-china truce. i think the trend is probably down from here, but there are still some significant risks out there because the tariff uncertainty continues to be very significant. the data on balance are definitely reassuring, but we haven't seen meaningful trade deals really only the uk. there

is a risk of renewed escalation with china. we're not building that in as our baseline baseline is we stay at 30 percentage points, but there's a lot of uncertainty yet to be resolved. >> i have this vague recollection of you guys, and i've been focused on this so late, and we'll continue to be on. i don't didn't you guys put out some estimates in terms of ai and the impact overall some time ago? i curious as to whether you continue to track that and what impact you see, or if you're measuring sort of the efficiency and all the things we're seeing in the enterprise right now, what the impact could be. >> yeah, we put out a piece very early, you know, pretty much soon after chatgpt release with one and a half percentage point boost to annual gdp growth over a ten year period in once the adoption really kicked in sort of late this decade. >> yeah. any changes to. >> your view? we have not we have not changed that now. we only boosted our potential gdp

growth estimate for that period by about half a percentage point, because there are a number of offsets. that one and a half is sort of a gross number. but once you adjust for the offsets, it's smaller but nevertheless meaningful. i mean, half a percentage point is significant, and we are tracking adoption. it's slow, but it's but it continues. and we still feel good about the idea that this is going to be a very meaningful economic force. but macro wise, the biggest impact is probably still a few years away. >> yeah. it's good to see you. have a good weekend. thanks for coming in. thank you. jan hatzius. >> number of big earnings movers lower today. we're going to break down the drop particularly in lululemon shares which are down almost 20% next. plus the gloves come off. president trump and elon musk trading blows publicly as their alliance implodes. we're going to talk about the fallout with former trump administration insider marc short when squawk on the street comes right back.

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people. >> welcome back. check out shares of lululemon this morning. down double digits, falling to the bottom of the s&p after the company did top earnings and revenue estimates for the first quarter, but also cut its earnings outlook, citing a, quote, dynamic macroeconomic environment. lulu also missing total comp estimates coming in at 1% estimates of a 3% jump. the company's cfo on the saying on the earnings call that lululemon will take strategic price increases to mitigate the impact of tariffs. guys, the guidance cut wasn't that significant, especially if you look relative to some of the other retailers that we've had just in terms of profits, it's followed abercrombie and fitch, gap american eagle withdrew guidance altogether. so we know companies are dealing with that. i think it's the realization of just the slowdown in growth that lulu has seen, particularly in north america and its comps. it's just i mean, remember when this company was comping 15, 20%? so there's been a real loss of momentum, even though the company spoke positively about some of the new releases. >> yeah, really interesting

caller from mcdonald last night. still ahead, a lot more on the fallout from the president's feud with elon musk, all stemming from musk's criticism of that so-called big, beautiful bill. former administration insider and chief of staff for mike pence, marc short, will join us with his thoughts in just a moment. >> trend tracker is sponsored by cme group. cme group where risk meets opportunity. >> is this how you're hoping to retire? well, hope isn't a good retirement strategy. you've worked for a comfortable retirement for years now you need to plan for retirement income. learn ways to avoid common mistakes, like being too conservative or not setting retirement goals. have someone on your side to keep you on track. >> call for a comfortable

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administration. he's now board chair of advancing american freedom. does this put the bill at risk? marc. >> sara, thanks for having me. look, i don't think it helps the bill. the reality is that the house passed it by one vote, 215 to 214. so any sort of water that it takes on is unhelpful. and i think that, you know, elon put a lot of money into the election in 2024. and so if there's a threat that that's considered a factor for some members of 26, it doesn't help. having said that, i still think that ultimately this bill passes. i think the threat of a $4.5 trillion tax increase has always been the driver here, and still remains the biggest driver that will compel republicans to actually pass the extension of tax relief from 2017. >> so do you think i mean, musk has more to lose than trump? that was sort of the market's first take. >> i think that's probably true. i think that's probably true. but i don't think it's helpful for either side. and i don't think it's helpful for the party

to have this distraction when this is the president's largest legislative vehicle for this year, and really the only legislative vehicle for this year. and so having having this, this battle play out right now is certainly not productive or helpful to the cause. >> no, it's helping democrats. they're they're practically celebrating. >> yeah. >> yeah. i mean, i mean, look, it is i think that i don't see that elon is going to switch parties. i think, as you know, much of what drove elon was kind of a more libertarian concern about where the previous administration had gone and also on social issues like the trans issues. and so i think that i don't think that's going to change. but certainly if his money is withheld from republicans, that's that's a big change in 2026. but again, ultimately, i think that republicans know that that a, a $4.5 trillion tax increase on the american people is not what they want to see happen. and they'll come together to actually get this done. now, i think that some of these deadlines are pretty artificial. and so the notion you can get this done by july 4th, i think in many cases is really driven

because i think there's more anxiety on capitol hill for republicans about this trade agenda and concerns in the second half of the year, that this trade agenda of the president is going to have negative impacts on the economy, and therefore they want to get this bill done sooner. but if it misses the july 4th deadline, it's not like it's in the world. they really have until the end of the year to complete this. and i think ultimately they will. >> so if you were giving advice to either side to trump or musk, what would it be? mark, in terms of this current feud? you know, given neither one of them back down and they both can be quite vindictive. well, david. >> i think at the end of the day, look, i don't think this surprises anybody as to where it ended up. i think the escalation and the godzilla versus king kong feud, certainly, i think surprised people from just two days ago being given a key to the white house and now saying we're going to take away all government contracts. and a couple of days ago saying he's the greatest president ever to supporting impeachment. that's a pretty dramatic escalation. >> yes, it is. >> but but i think at the end of the day, it's probably best that they both put their phones down

and stop tweeting at each other. i think that's probably what's best for the cause here. >> mark, is there precedent for the president to look past this kind of quote unquote disloyalty? >> it doesn't seem so. i mean, i think that the president does like to have sort of made for tv moments. and so i think he likes to have reunions. but i think that when he's, you know, separated from previous people in the first administration, you know, whether or not that was jeff sessions or bill barr or mattis, i think that these things usually continue on. and so i it's probably not much pathway to reunification here. but again, i think that that as long as there's not the continued feuding, they can still get this bill done. >> yeah. i mean he's more likely to pull their secret service protection than, than anything else. although musk doesn't have to worry about that, he can pay for plenty. you know, how important is the money from musk, the republican party mark, in terms of even congressional races and sort of across the board, because musk was pointing

to it in some of the tweets yesterday. >> look, i think it's important i do think that that some of this is exaggerated because i think most americans like where that money usually goes is into paid and the reality is that evidence shows fewer and fewer americans actually look at those paid tv commercials. there is money that can be that can be invested into a lot more of a of supporting, you know, feet on the ground and helping to get people out to vote. and i think it matters. but i but i also think that that it's probably a little bit dramatized as to what that impact was in 2014. >> he does also control a pretty powerful platform as well in x. i mean, that's not to be forgotten also. >> absolutely right. >> but there's i mean it's beyond it's beyond credits, right. for musk's businesses he needs regulation as he's about to roll out his self-driving robo taxis and compete with waymo. his company is the only us space firm that's regularly transporting astronauts to the international space station. and there are a lot of issues here that could affect musk's

business and plans. >> i mean, it goes beyond the economy, sarah. it's also a national security issue. obviously, with spacex and exploration there, that is important to us. but, i mean, it is fascinating to see somebody whose businesses were built, in many cases on the backs of american taxpayers and subsidies for electric vehicles and direct payments for space exploration. he did come out yesterday. i saw and say that, you know, go ahead and keep in the bill the elimination of those subsidies, which i think is great. and i think he's right to say we should continue to expand elimination of those subsidies across the board. and i think that elon has done a really effective job of pointing out waste in government spending, i think has been a service. but again, ultimately, i think he's wrong on not wanting to get this bill passed because i'm not sure, honestly, guys, how much growth there is in the bill. i think in 2017, when you lower corporate rates from 35 to 21, that was a huge juice and a huge impact. but we're talking about now, it's more or less just extending that same tax relief.

i know there's some full expensing. i think that's exaggerating what that impact is me. but if you don't pass it and you actually have $4.5 trillion of additional taxes, i think that would have a huge negative impact on the economy. >> are you surprised, mark, that the doj's rescissions are $9 billion? i mean, if i had thrown that number at you three months ago, i mean, you probably would have laughed at me, right? the hopes were much more aspirational. >> no, actually, i think when i was on with you guys a few months ago, i always said that, you know, it's good to expose these cuts, but the executive branch can't do that on its own, because if you have that precedent, then then a future democrat administration come in and say, you know what? i'm just unilaterally decide we're not going to fund customs and border patrol. so you always need this legislated. and that was always going to be a problem, because washington doesn't like to cut spending. and the real drivers of our deficits are entitlements. and nobody's really talking about that. but the white house put forward a $9 billion number just as a test, because honestly, i think they're looking to set up a battle in the second half of

this year on the impoundment act. this current administration believes strongly they have the authority to impound funds that congress appropriates. and i think it's setting up a much bigger legal battle in the second half of the year, because i don't think congress is going to be supportive of just the executive branch unilaterally impounding funds. and so for them, if the $9 billion package doesn't go forward, it helps build their case to say, see, congress can never do that. that's why we need to impound the funds ourselves. >> well, we'll talk to you between now and then if that heats up. thank you. mark, appreciate you joining us on this big story. marc short. >> as we wrap up the hour, check out shares of a newly listed circle surging as you know in their debut yesterday adding another 20% today. early investor and largest individual shareholder jim breyer, who was at the bell ringing yesterday, is going to join us next with money movers. continues after this.

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official. start your will at trust and wilcom now and make it count. >> good friday morning. welcome to money movers. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange today. rally mode stocks jumping on that hotter than expected jobs print tesla with a bounce following yesterday's big sell off nvidia, meta and apple among the other tech names rallying this

morning. >> plus, the bromance breakup, president trump and elon musk with a very public war of words on social media, we are joined by tesla shareholder and head of the country's third largest pension system, with reaction. >> circles on the move after that surge in the public debut yesterday. we'll talk to early investor and largest individual shareholder jim breyer in just a few minutes. >> first off, though, in the markets it's a steady rally. we've got every sector rising in the s&p 500 right now, which is up 1%. it's pretty much been there all morning long actually. utilities just dipped negative. but tech is leading the way. and you have some comeback stories from yesterday's selloff tesla is at the top of that list nvidia is higher amazon apple. palantir getting a nice bump in today's session. better than expected headline jobs number. unemployment rate stays 4.2%. so overall a pretty strong read. but some economists pointing to some weakness under the surface see some tariff impact, for instance on retail jobs, manufacturing jobs. they declined. and the revisions almost